Fair enough. No more apologies. (Except for hitting post message by accident a minute ago). The beauty of this forum is it allows lower-level players such as myself a glimpse into the thinking of the greatest players. I just don't want to abuse that privilege. Here was my thinking with this move. I'm behind in the race and have a better board so that favors staying back on the 2. Advancing to the bar point gives White all the time in the world to lob checkers into his board. Yes, White has those stacks on the 5, 6 , and 8 points but he will probably not attack my checker on the 2 this turn. If he does I'm a strong favorite to enter and if he makes another point I always have the bar point as a safety valve if things get too hot in his board. Playing 13/6 strips the midpoint but places the spare so neatly onto the 6-point. It just looks structurally prettier to me than my board after 4/2 with a blot on the 2 and no builders anywhere in sight to cover it. The first thing you better players thought of was how to safety that back man. The first thing I thought of was the race and, being behind in it, I should stay back. And then the seemingly wonderful 13/6 putting the spare onto the 6-point sealed it for me. I couldn't figure out, even in retrospect, how staying back could be wrong. I have a better sense of it now with all of your good explanations but I'm still not sure thematically that I would not get this wrong next time.
         
 
         
 | | White is Kami
score: 0
pip: 118 | | 5 point match | pip: 130
score: 2
Blue is Say La Vee |
|
| XGID=-B-BC-B--a--bC---dBdd--A--:0:0:1:52:2:0:0:5:10 |
| Blue to play 52 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 23/18 4/2 | eq: -0.372 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.75% (G:2.84% B:0.06%)
62.25% (G:4.28% B:0.14%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.378...-0.367) - [100.0%]
Duration: 40 minutes 17 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 23/16 | eq: -0.388 (-0.016) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.77% (G:4.14% B:0.12%)
62.23% (G:5.80% B:0.19%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.394...-0.382) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 34 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 13/6 | eq: -0.481 (-0.108) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.41% (G:6.00% B:0.14%)
62.59% (G:10.48% B:0.33%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.487...-0.475) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 08 seconds |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2