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4-3 "backgame" cube action @ 5a 5a ROLLOUT

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Friday, 28 June 2013, at 4:18 p.m.

In Response To: 4-3 "backgame" cube action @ 5a 5a (Neil Robins)

This originally came up with white trailing 5a 3a and everyone I showed it to (myself included) thought it was D/P. In fact, at that score it's a whopper to cube and a triple whopper to pass. At 5a 5a it's a close hold and a massive take.

I think it's easy to look at the pipcount and think "backgame with poor timing" and conclude D/P, but blue's timing is not as bad as the pipcount would imply.

As Neil points out, the position of the spare makes the difference - move it back to the 3 and it's a cube, although at 5a 3a it remains a hold.

Rollouts of variants and commentary available here

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 106
5 point match
pip: 158
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.43% (G:17.91% B:0.32%) 67.46% (G:18.05% B:0.37%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.57% (G:3.84% B:0.14%) 32.54% (G:3.91% B:0.16%)
Cubeless Equities +0.479 +1.027
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.7640.012 (+0.752..+0.777)
Double/Take:+0.755 (-0.009)0.015 (+0.740..+0.770)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.236)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 3.7%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:82.5%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 24 minutes 34 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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