This originally came up with white trailing 5a 3a and everyone I showed it to (myself included) thought it was D/P. In fact, at that score it's a whopper to cube and a triple whopper to pass. At 5a 5a it's a close hold and a massive take.
I think it's easy to look at the pipcount and think "backgame with poor timing" and conclude D/P, but blue's timing is not as bad as the pipcount would imply.
As Neil points out, the position of the spare makes the difference - move it back to the 3 and it's a cube, although at 5a 3a it remains a hold.
Rollouts of variants and commentary available here
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| XGID=---ACBBB-a------bbbebCBa--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:5:10 | |||||
| White on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 67.43% (G:17.91% B:0.32%) | 67.46% (G:18.05% B:0.37%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 32.57% (G:3.84% B:0.14%) | 32.54% (G:3.91% B:0.16%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.479 | +1.027 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.764 | ±0.012 (+0.752..+0.777) |
| Double/Take: | +0.755 (-0.009) | ±0.015 (+0.740..+0.770) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.236) | |
| Best Cube action: No double / Take | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 3.7% | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 82.5% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 24 minutes 34 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2