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4-3 "backgame" cube action @ 5a 5a ROLLOUT
Posted By: ah_clem In Response To: 4-3 "backgame" cube action @ 5a 5a (Neil Robins)
Date: Friday, 28 June 2013, at 4:18 p.m.
This originally came up with white trailing 5a 3a and everyone I showed it to (myself included) thought it was D/P. In fact, at that score it's a whopper to cube and a triple whopper to pass. At 5a 5a it's a close hold and a massive take.
I think it's easy to look at the pipcount and think "backgame with poor timing" and conclude D/P, but blue's timing is not as bad as the pipcount would imply.
As Neil points out, the position of the spare makes the difference - move it back to the 3 and it's a cube, although at 5a 3a it remains a hold.
Rollouts of variants and commentary available here
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 1065 point match pip: 158
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=---ACBBB-a------bbbebCBa--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:5:10 White on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 67.43% (G:17.91% B:0.32%) 67.46% (G:18.05% B:0.37%) Opponent Winning Chances: 32.57% (G:3.84% B:0.14%) 32.54% (G:3.91% B:0.16%) Cubeless Equities +0.479 +1.027 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.764 ±0.012 (+0.752..+0.777) Double/Take: +0.755 (-0.009) ±0.015 (+0.740..+0.770) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.236) Best Cube action: No double / Take Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 3.7% Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 82.5% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 24 minutes 34 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
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