Never?

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Never?

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Thursday, 1 August 2013, at 2:30 p.m.

In Response To: 43S-51H-21.–8–5 — Raj Jansari-Julien Fetterlein — 2013 London Open (neilkaz)

Dmitriy may have 4 ply rollouts which reverse some or all of these. But, 43S appears to be reasonable at a handful of scores.

White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 167

6 point match

pip: 167
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:43:0:5:0:6:10
Blue to play 43

1. Rollout¹ 24/20 13/10 eq: +0.8988
Player:
Opponent: 50.25% (G:13.61% B:0.59%)
49.75% (G:14.53% B:1.37%) Conf.: ±0.0016 (+0.8972...+0.9003) - [69.8%]
Duration: 2 hours 59 minutes
2. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/9 eq: +0.8982 (-0.0006)
Player:
Opponent: 50.12% (G:15.10% B:0.67%)
49.88% (G:15.00% B:1.73%) Conf.: ±0.0017 (+0.8965...+0.8999) - [29.6%]
Duration: 3 hours 04 minutes
3. Rollout¹ 24/21 13/9 eq: +0.8964 (-0.0023)
Player:
Opponent: 50.24% (G:14.06% B:0.61%)
49.76% (G:14.62% B:1.35%) Conf.: ±0.0015 (+0.8949...+0.8979) - [0.6%]
Duration: 2 hours 26 minutes
4. Rollout² 24/21 24/20 eq: +0.8865 (-0.0123)
Player:
Opponent: 50.41% (G:12.12% B:0.45%)
49.59% (G:14.46% B:1.61%) Conf.: ±0.0049 (+0.8816...+0.8914) - [0.0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 25 seconds

¹ 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25528416
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

² 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25528416
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 167

4 point match
Crawford

pip: 167
score: 3

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:43:3:0:1:4:10
Blue to play 43

1. Rollout¹ 24/20 13/10 eq: -0.1505
Player:
Opponent: 49.60% (G:16.24% B:2.48%)
50.40% (G:13.91% B:0.98%) Conf.: ±0.0013 (-0.1518...-0.1492) - [58.2%]
Duration: 12 hours 27 minutes
2. Rollout¹ 24/21 13/9 eq: -0.1507 (-0.0002)
Player:
Opponent: 49.58% (G:16.32% B:2.52%)
50.42% (G:13.90% B:0.97%) Conf.: ±0.0013 (-0.1520...-0.1494) - [41.4%]
Duration: 11 hours 59 minutes
3. Rollout² 24/21 24/20 eq: -0.1534 (-0.0029)
Player:
Opponent: 49.49% (G:15.15% B:2.26%)
50.51% (G:14.00% B:0.78%) Conf.: ±0.0018 (-0.1552...-0.1515) - [0.2%]
Duration: 6 hours 55 minutes
4. Rollout³ 13/10 13/9 eq: -0.1550 (-0.0045)
Player:
Opponent: 49.53% (G:17.82% B:2.67%)
50.47% (G:14.18% B:1.43%) Conf.: ±0.0032 (-0.1582...-0.1518) - [0.2%]
Duration: 3 hours 27 minutes

¹ 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25528416
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

² 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25528416
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

³ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25528416
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 167

5 point match
Crawford

pip: 167
score: 4

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:43:4:0:1:5:10
Blue to play 43

1. Rollout¹ 24/20 13/10 eq: -0.0225
Player:
Opponent: 49.84% (G:15.90% B:2.21%)
50.16% (G:14.66% B:0.67%) Conf.: ±0.0012 (-0.0237...-0.0213) - [64.9%]
Duration: 8 hours 32 minutes
2. Rollout¹ 24/21 13/9 eq: -0.0228 (-0.0003)
Player:
Opponent: 49.81% (G:16.21% B:2.39%)
50.19% (G:14.68% B:0.66%) Conf.: ±0.0012 (-0.0240...-0.0216) - [34.4%]
Duration: 8 hours 22 minutes
3. Rollout² 24/21 24/20 eq: -0.0252 (-0.0027)
Player:
Opponent: 49.63% (G:14.82% B:1.94%)
50.37% (G:14.28% B:0.57%) Conf.: ±0.0017 (-0.0269...-0.0235) - [0.1%]
Duration: 5 hours 41 minutes
4. Rollout³ 13/10 13/9 eq: -0.0253 (-0.0029)
Player:
Opponent: 49.78% (G:17.60% B:2.71%)
50.22% (G:15.11% B:0.80%) Conf.: ±0.0021 (-0.0275...-0.0232) - [0.5%]
Duration: 3 hours 54 minutes

¹ 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25528416
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

² 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25528416
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

³ 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25528416
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 167

6 point match
Crawford

pip: 167
score: 5

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:43:5:0:1:6:10
Blue to play 43

1. Rollout¹ 24/20 13/10 eq: -0.1840
Player:
Opponent: 49.47% (G:16.20% B:2.47%)
50.53% (G:13.75% B:0.87%) Conf.: ±0.0014 (-0.1853...-0.1826) - [49.6%]
Duration: 7 hours 35 minutes
2. Rollout¹ 24/21 13/9 eq: -0.1840
Player:
Opponent: 49.48% (G:16.32% B:2.54%)
50.52% (G:13.76% B:0.84%) Conf.: ±0.0014 (-0.1853...-0.1826) - [49.7%]
Duration: 7 hours 23 minutes
3. Rollout² 24/21 24/20 eq: -0.1868 (-0.0029)
Player:
Opponent: 49.41% (G:15.11% B:2.36%)
50.59% (G:13.90% B:0.68%) Conf.: ±0.0023 (-0.1891...-0.1845) - [0.6%]
Duration: 3 hours 19 minutes
4. Rollout² 13/10 13/9 eq: -0.1886 (-0.0047)
Player:
Opponent: 49.50% (G:17.81% B:2.76%)
50.50% (G:14.12% B:1.25%) Conf.: ±0.0024 (-0.1910...-0.1862) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 10 minutes

¹ 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25528416
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

² 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25528416
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 167

7 point match

pip: 167
score: 6

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:43:6:0:0:7:10
Blue to play 43

1. Rollout¹ 24/20 13/10 eq: -0.2759
Player:
Opponent: 49.30% (G:16.10% B:2.41%)
50.70% (G:13.56% B:0.50%) Conf.: ±0.0015 (-0.2774...-0.2744) - [67.6%]
Duration: 8 hours 17 minutes
2. Rollout¹ 24/21 13/9 eq: -0.2764 (-0.0005)
Player:
Opponent: 49.27% (G:16.06% B:2.47%)
50.73% (G:13.55% B:0.50%) Conf.: ±0.0015 (-0.2779...-0.2749) - [29.5%]
Duration: 7 hours 57 minutes
3. Rollout¹ 24/21 24/20 eq: -0.2775 (-0.0017)
Player:
Opponent: 49.34% (G:15.26% B:2.25%)
50.66% (G:13.82% B:0.43%) Conf.: ±0.0015 (-0.2790...-0.2760) - [2.9%]
Duration: 8 hours 07 minutes
4. Rollout² 13/10 13/9 eq: -0.2847 (-0.0089)
Player:
Opponent: 49.32% (G:17.63% B:2.83%)
50.68% (G:14.01% B:0.65%) Conf.: ±0.0036 (-0.2884...-0.2811) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 10 minutes

¹ 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25528416
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

² 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25528416
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 167

8 point match

pip: 167
score: 7

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:43:7:0:0:8:10
Blue to play 43

1. Rollout¹ 24/20 13/10 eq: -0.9018
Player:
Opponent: 49.26% (G:16.05% B:2.43%)
50.74% (G:13.50% B:0.49%) Conf.: ±0.0022 (-0.9040...-0.8996) - [75.2%]
Duration: 12 hours 57 minutes
2. Rollout¹ 24/21 13/9 eq: -0.9030 (-0.0011)
Player:
Opponent: 49.25% (G:16.10% B:2.47%)
50.75% (G:13.53% B:0.50%) Conf.: ±0.0022 (-0.9052...-0.9007) - [23.6%]
Duration: 12 hours 30 minutes
3. Rollout¹ 24/21 24/20 eq: -0.9050 (-0.0031)
Player:
Opponent: 49.31% (G:15.21% B:2.26%)
50.69% (G:13.81% B:0.42%) Conf.: ±0.0023 (-0.9072...-0.9027) - [1.2%]
Duration: 13 hours 07 minutes
4. Rollout² 13/10 13/9 eq: -0.9181 (-0.0163)
Player:
Opponent: 49.28% (G:17.63% B:2.84%)
50.72% (G:14.02% B:0.66%) Conf.: ±0.0055 (-0.9236...-0.9126) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 39 minutes

¹ 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25528416
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

² 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25528416
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 167

8 point match
Crawford

pip: 167
score: 7

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:43:7:0:1:8:10
Blue to play 43

1. Rollout¹ 24/20 13/10 eq: -0.1656
Player:
Opponent: 49.57% (G:16.16% B:2.52%)
50.43% (G:13.83% B:0.82%) Conf.: ±0.0014 (-0.1669...-0.1642) - [81.7%]
Duration: 8 hours 29 minutes
2. Rollout¹ 24/21 13/9 eq: -0.1665 (-0.0009)
Player:
Opponent: 49.54% (G:16.30% B:2.61%)
50.46% (G:13.86% B:0.78%) Conf.: ±0.0013 (-0.1678...-0.1651) - [18.2%]
Duration: 8 hours 18 minutes
3. Rollout² 24/21 24/20 eq: -0.1686 (-0.0030)
Player:
Opponent: 49.46% (G:15.17% B:2.29%)
50.54% (G:13.92% B:0.65%) Conf.: ±0.0016 (-0.1702...-0.1670) - [0.1%]
Duration: 5 hours 39 minutes
4. Rollout³ 13/10 13/9 eq: -0.1709 (-0.0054)
Player:
Opponent: 49.53% (G:17.94% B:2.75%)
50.47% (G:14.17% B:1.17%) Conf.: ±0.0023 (-0.1732...-0.1686) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 39 minutes

¹ 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25528416
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

² 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25528416
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

³ 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25528416
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 167

9 point match

pip: 167
score: 8

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:43:8:0:0:9:10
Blue to play 43

1. Rollout¹ 24/20 13/10 eq: -0.2765
Player:
Opponent: 49.30% (G:16.03% B:2.41%)
50.70% (G:13.59% B:0.49%) Conf.: ±0.0015 (-0.2780...-0.2750) - [55.1%]
Duration: 8 hours 43 minutes
2. Rollout¹ 24/21 13/9 eq: -0.2768 (-0.0003)
Player:
Opponent: 49.26% (G:16.33% B:2.60%)
50.74% (G:13.56% B:0.49%) Conf.: ±0.0015 (-0.2783...-0.2753) - [33.0%]
Duration: 8 hours 35 minutes
3. Rollout¹ 24/21 24/20 eq: -0.2774 (-0.0009)
Player:
Opponent: 49.32% (G:15.27% B:2.29%)
50.68% (G:13.83% B:0.41%) Conf.: ±0.0015 (-0.2789...-0.2759) - [11.9%]
Duration: 8 hours 38 minutes
4. Rollout² 13/10 13/9 eq: -0.2865 (-0.0100)
Player:
Opponent: 49.26% (G:17.48% B:2.83%)
50.74% (G:14.02% B:0.63%) Conf.: ±0.0037 (-0.2902...-0.2829) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 33 minutes

¹ 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25528416
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

² 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25528416
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Messages In This Thread

43S-51H-21.–8–5 — Raj Jansari-Julien Fetterlein — 2013 London Open
Taper_Mike -- Thursday, 1 August 2013, at 5:33 a.m.
- 43S-51H-21.–8–5 — Raj Jansari-Julien Fetterlein — 2013 London Open
  neilkaz -- Thursday, 1 August 2013, at 6:28 a.m.
  - Never?
    David Rockwell -- Thursday, 1 August 2013, at 2:30 p.m.
    - Never?
      neilkaz -- Thursday, 1 August 2013, at 4:52 p.m.
      - Never?
        Taper_Mike -- Thursday, 1 August 2013, at 10:31 p.m.
    - And don't forget 43U
      David Rockwell -- Friday, 2 August 2013, at 12:49 a.m.
      - And don't forget 43U
        Dmitriy Obukhov -- Friday, 2 August 2013, at 3:08 a.m.
    - Pattern
      David Rockwell -- Friday, 2 August 2013, at 1:12 a.m.
    - 4ply XG2 rollouts where split or Up are best
      Dmitriy Obukhov -- Friday, 2 August 2013, at 3:52 a.m.
  - 43S-51H-21.–8–5 — Raj Jansari-Julien Fetterlein — 2013 London Open
    Taper_Mike -- Thursday, 1 August 2013, at 6:44 p.m.
- Opening 43 — 8-away, 5-away — 3-ply XG2 Rollout
  Taper_Mike -- Saturday, 3 August 2013, at 11:51 p.m.
- 43S-51H-21 — Unlimited Games — 3-ply XG2 Rollout
  Taper_Mike -- Saturday, 3 August 2013, at 11:56 p.m.

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