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43S-51H-21 — Unlimited Games — 3-ply XG2 Rollout

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Saturday, 3 August 2013, at 11:56 p.m.

In Response To: 43S-51H-21.–8–5 — Raj Jansari-Julien Fetterlein — 2013 London Open (Taper_Mike)


1O ' ' '1X4X '4X ' ' '4O

2X ' ' ' '5O '3O '1O '4X
Position ID: 0PPgATDgc+IBUA Match ID: cAkFAAAAAAAA

43S-51H-21 — Unlimited Games
Bot Seed Equity Nacbracs Link
GnuBg 0.xx 2-ply Trunc 685547625 –243.096 [B U11 S32 %35 W36] /0.360t Taper_Mike
XG 2.10 XGR++ Eval [XGR++ seed] –212.4 [B U1 %10 W14 S17] "&e Taper_Mike
XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR 24500697 –219.2 [W=B %3 U5 S16] "<=62***31 Taper_Mike (below)

43S-51H-21 — According to Score
Bot Seed Equity Nacbracs Link
GnuBg 0.xx 2-ply Trunc 685605532 –102.698 –8–5 [B U12 S12 %14 W20] /0.360t Taper_Mike
XG 2.10 XGR++ Eval, MET: Kazaross XG2 [XGR++ seed] –71.9 –8–5 [W B2 %4 U6 S12] "&e Taper_Mike (below)

Key: $ = Slot = W = Wild [bar/23, 6/5], % = Alternate slot [bar/24, 6/4], B = Both [24/23, 10/9],
S = Split = Z = Reverse split [bar/24, 13/11], U = Up [bar/22]

Explanation of nacbracs

Raj Jansari-Julien Fetterlein
London Open 2013
Semi-final match
YouTube video at 53:55

There is a very good play that does not involve slotting. Entering on the 23pt, and pushing the blot in the outer board down to the 9pt, creates a very strong alignment of builders. With the rear checkers split, it also puts significant pressure on the opponent to cover his slot.

Although my preference is to slot the 5pt, slotting the 4pt is also fine. By virtue of being 6 pips away from the 4pt, the blot on the 10pt provides a good cover or hit from the bar. At this score, Julien Fetterlein’s slot of the 4pt is even more acceptable than in unlimited games due to the fact that he could really use a gammon win.

It is interesting to compare this position with 54S-51H-21, something that came up in the preceding game of Julian’s match with Raj Jansari.

Mike


8-away, 5-away

XG Roller++ Eval





White is Player 2

score: 6
pip: 161
11 point match
pip: 165
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C-A-dD---d-da---AA:0:0:1:21:3:6:0:11:10
Blue to play 21
1.XG Roller++Bar/23 6/5eq: -0.0719
Player:
Opponent:
45.46% (G:11.79% B:0.50%)
54.54% (G:17.82% B:1.05%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/23 10/9eq: -0.0739 (-0.0020)
Player:
Opponent:
44.94% (G:11.65% B:0.46%)
55.06% (G:15.94% B:0.70%)
3.XG Roller++Bar/24 6/4eq: -0.0757 (-0.0038)
Player:
Opponent:
45.03% (G:12.13% B:0.49%)
54.97% (G:16.88% B:1.15%)
4.XG Roller++Bar/22eq: -0.0780 (-0.0060)
Player:
Opponent:
44.97% (G:11.24% B:0.46%)
55.03% (G:15.80% B:0.72%)
5.XG Roller++Bar/24 13/11eq: -0.0841 (-0.0122)
Player:
Opponent:
44.44% (G:12.36% B:0.50%)
55.56% (G:16.67% B:1.01%)

Raj Jansari-Julien Fetterlein
London Open 2013
Semi-final match
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EOvyOTOOCOU&t=58m55s

Eval by Taper_Mike
2013-Jul-31
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
43S-51H-21.-8-5-tm.xgp
-8-5 [W B2 %4 U6 S12] "&e

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2


Unlimited Games

62k Rollout





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 161
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 165
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C-A-dD---d-da---AA:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 21
1.Rollout1Bar/23 6/5eq: -0.2192
Player:
Opponent:
45.91% (G:12.56% B:0.61%)
54.09% (G:19.11% B:1.19%)
Conf.: ±0.0025 (-0.2217...-0.2167) - [56.4%]
Duration: 8 hours 08 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/23 10/9eq: -0.2195 (-0.0003)
Player:
Opponent:
44.99% (G:12.17% B:0.53%)
55.01% (G:16.62% B:0.75%)
Conf.: ±0.0023 (-0.2218...-0.2173) - [41.7%]
Duration: 7 hours 27 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/24 6/4eq: -0.2220 (-0.0027)
Player:
Opponent:
45.24% (G:12.76% B:0.58%)
54.76% (G:17.47% B:1.19%)
Conf.: ±0.0024 (-0.2244...-0.2195) - [1.9%]
Duration: 7 hours 48 minutes
4.Rollout1Bar/22eq: -0.2239 (-0.0046)
Player:
Opponent:
44.93% (G:11.88% B:0.53%)
55.07% (G:16.55% B:0.77%)
Conf.: ±0.0023 (-0.2262...-0.2215) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 hours 57 minutes
5.Rollout2Bar/24 13/11eq: -0.2348 (-0.0156)
Player:
Opponent:
44.51% (G:13.00% B:0.58%)
55.49% (G:17.19% B:1.09%)
Conf.: ±0.0033 (-0.2381...-0.2315) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 37 minutes
 
1 62208 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24500697
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 24500697
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike
2013-Aug-02
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
43S-51H-21-tm.xgp
[W=B %3 U5 S16] "<=62***31
[B U1 %10 W14 S17] "&e

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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