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Simple count with adjustments

Posted By: Rod
Date: Sunday, 29 September 2013, at 7:11 a.m.

In Response To: Estimating Winning Chances in a Skewed Race (Chris Bray)

Base count - B:46 W:36

Adjustments:

Blue: 3+ checkers on 3 point: +1

White: 3+ checkers on 2/3 points: +5 Missing 6 point: +1

Adjusted count: B:47 W: 42

Blue on roll -4 1/2

1/2 pip down * 2%.

49%

Which seems to be off a bit from the actual. But close. Perhaps not close enough for this decision.

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