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Estimating Winning Chances in a Skewed Race
Posted By: Igor
Date: Sunday, 29 September 2013, at 1:57 p.m.
In Response To: Estimating Winning Chances in a Skewed Race (Chris Bray)
I always use EPC in such positions. Blue is a bit worse than a flat position, so let's give him 11 pips of wastage. White is a bit worse than a 7roll position. How much worse? Aces are going to miss eventually, so add 2 pips for that missing number.
Total: white 52, blue 57. Blue is one pip short of an even race.
Now, let's estimate the value of a pip in this race. For white to be even she needs 53 pips, the point of last take is 62 (57 minus 1 divided by 7 gives 8 and then subtract 3), so the range of 27% (between 50% and 78%) is covered by 9 pips; hence each pip is worth 3%. One more adjustment  as shown in Tom Keith's article, the value of a pip is not constant, it is more than average when you are closer to the even race and less than average if you are closer to the point of last take. As a practical matter, I have found that adding 10% to the value of the pip around even race produces reasonable results.
So, putting everything together blue has about 46.547% in the race.

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