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21$-62 — Rollout data for every score in a 5pt match

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Wednesday, 12 February 2014, at 2:19 p.m.

In Response To: 21$, 62? (Snua)

There Is No Such Thing as a “Normal Match Score”

David Rockwell, Paul Weaver, and Stick, among others, have been trying to tell us this for a long time. The top three moves in David’s unlimited-games rollout were each given 62k trials. Splitting, S = 24/18 13/11, came out the clear winner.

21$-62 [S Z9 N15 D22 $26 R31 U44] "<62**31*15 10

In the data below, however, splitting wins the rollout only at DMP and a very few scores that play like DMP. Perhaps more distant scores such as 11-away/11-away might fairly be termed “normal match scores,” but this data clearly demonstrates that nothing at 5-away or less can be.

In the table that follows you can hover your mouse over any rollout to see its complete nacbracs as a tooltip. Try it!


2O ' ' '1X4X '3X ' '1X5O

2X ' ' ' '5O '3O ' ' '4X

21$-62 at Every Score in a 5-point Match
  –c –p –2 –3 –4 –5 –n
–c — — Gammon Save
& Z2 $10 S13		 S Z10 &14 R14 U16 & S1 Z2 S Z8 &11 —
–p — Double Match Point
S &6 Z12		 & D12 $20 Z20 S23 After double/take,
–p–3 plays like GS		 &=S=Z=D=$=R=U Z=S R5 &9 —
–2 Gammon Go
& D10 Z16 S17 $18		 After double/take,
–2–p plays like DMP		 After double/take,
–2–2 plays like DMP		 & Z11 S15 & Z11 S37 Z &7 S22 —
–3 S &5 Z13 After double/take,
–3–p plays like GG		 & S22 Z31 & S7 Z14 & Z1 D21 S21 Z S14 &15 —
–4 & S8 D11 Z14 & D7 $12 Z16 S19 & D27 $28 Z43 & S21 $22 Z24 D25 & Z5 S19 Z S2 &3 —
–5 S &5 Z12 & S11 D11 Z16 & D16 $24 S31 Z34 & S11 D12 Z22 & Z8 D13 S13 Z=& S3 —
–n — — — — — — S Z9 &11

Key: $ = Slot [13/5], & = Double slot = N = Near [13/7 6/4], D = Down [13/9 13/7], R = Run [24/14], S = Split [24/18 13/11],
U = Up [24/22 24/18], Z = Reverse split [24/22 13/7]

Nactation Tutorial • Explanation of nacbracs

Notes:

  1. The –n rollout is a money rollout, made with neither the Jacoby Rule nor beavers. It is the same as a match that is tied at infinity-away. As such, it is the closest we will come to a “normal match score,” i.e., one that is not influenced by the proximity of the finish line.
  2. The –n rollout was made by Taper_Mike. All other rollouts are by David Rockwell.
  3. The score of the player on roll is given along the side in the first column. The score of his opponent is given in the top row.
  4. –c means 1-away, Crawford.
  5. –p means 1-away, post-Crawford.

Mike

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