Posted By: phil simborg In Response To: It depends (lucky)
Date: Wednesday, 12 February 2014, at 2:02 p.m.
In Response To: It depends (lucky)
I came up with this trick by trying it myself, and of course I cannot prove that it is absolutely accurate, but it is one indicator that you have played enough games to rely on your average.
I am sure that if you play 50 games and take the average, then remove the best and worst 3 and find that the new average is very different, and then you play another 25 games and do the same, you will probably find that after you remove the top and bottom 3 the number will not change as much.
On the other hand, if you play 50 games and take away the top and bottom 3 and find there is little change in your average, the odds are much higher that if you then play another 25 games your average will not change that much. That would prove that this method is somewhat of an indicator of how good a milestone the original average was.
Of course if you do this with 1000 matches, taking away just 3 from the top and bottom will probably not result in any movement to speak of...but Tenland is looking for a way to have some kind of reasonable confidence in the numbers without playing 1000 matches, and I believe this approach is helpful.
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