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Rollout Result Posted

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Wednesday, 19 February 2014, at 9:50 p.m.

In Response To: Back Game Checker Play (Paul Weaver)

When I roll out a back game checker play, I am always afraid of two things: (1) Am I overlooking some candidate play that is actually the best? (2) Is XG really playing the position well enough to determine the best play?

Scroll down to see a diagram of the position after the rollout's best play has been made. See Neil's post for his commentary.





White is NevzatDogan

score: 0
pip: 130
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 206
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=--a-A-C-B---bCa--cbeBABaA-:0:0:1:51:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 51

1.Rollout113/8 6/5eq: -0.122
Player:
Opponent:
51.48% (G:11.21% B:0.49%)
48.52% (G:26.77% B:1.26%)
Conf.: 0.007 (-0.129...-0.115) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 20 minutes
2.Rollout221/16 6/5eq: -0.142 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
51.47% (G:10.93% B:0.47%)
48.53% (G:27.98% B:1.17%)
Conf.: 0.008 (-0.151...-0.134) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 21 minutes
3.Rollout113/7eq: -0.143 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
50.90% (G:11.17% B:0.51%)
49.10% (G:26.58% B:1.24%)
Conf.: 0.008 (-0.150...-0.135) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 15 minutes
4.Rollout321/15eq: -0.149 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:
50.36% (G:11.02% B:0.48%)
49.64% (G:25.58% B:0.98%)
Conf.: 0.012 (-0.160...-0.137) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 47 seconds
5.Rollout424/23* 13/8eq: -0.157 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
48.24% (G:11.61% B:0.52%)
51.76% (G:20.80% B:0.75%)
Conf.: 0.015 (-0.172...-0.142) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 25 seconds
6.Rollout524/23* 21/16eq: -0.160 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
48.85% (G:11.39% B:0.52%)
51.15% (G:21.53% B:0.86%)
Conf.: 0.018 (-0.178...-0.142) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 52 seconds
7.Rollout622/21 13/8eq: -0.167 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:
50.19% (G:11.06% B:0.50%)
49.81% (G:26.31% B:1.08%)
Conf.: 0.020 (-0.187...-0.147) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 10 seconds
8.Rollout721/20 13/8eq: -0.171 (-0.049)
Player:
Opponent:
49.23% (G:10.68% B:0.46%)
50.77% (G:24.37% B:0.79%)
Conf.: 0.021 (-0.192...-0.150) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 24 seconds
9.Rollout713/8 4/3eq: -0.189 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent:
49.02% (G:10.69% B:0.45%)
50.98% (G:24.95% B:1.06%)
Conf.: 0.020 (-0.210...-0.169) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 27 seconds
10.Rollout720/14* eq: -0.233 (-0.111)
Player:
Opponent:
47.82% (G:10.81% B:0.54%)
52.18% (G:25.25% B:1.85%)
Conf.: 0.025 (-0.258...-0.207) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 48 seconds
1 18119 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 18120 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

3 4191 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

4 2627 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

5 2628 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

6 1340 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

7 1341 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10





White is NevzatDogan

score: 0
pip: 130
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 200
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=--a-AAB-C---bBa--cbeBABaA-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in 4-ply No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 50.09% (G:26.42% B:1.28%) 49.87% (G:27.70% B:1.44%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 49.91% (G:11.47% B:0.61%) 50.13% (G:11.30% B:0.61%)
Cubeless Equities +0.158 +0.339
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.181
Double/Beaver:-0.171 (-0.352)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.819)
Best Cube action: No double / Beaver
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 23.1%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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