When I roll out a back game checker play, I am always afraid of two things: (1) Am I overlooking some candidate play that is actually the best? (2) Is XG really playing the position well enough to determine the best play?
Scroll down to see a diagram of the position after the rollout's best play has been made. See Neil's post for his commentary.
1. | Rollout1 | 13/8 6/5 | eq: -0.122 |
| Player: Opponent: | 51.48% (G:11.21% B:0.49%) 48.52% (G:26.77% B:1.26%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.129...-0.115) - [100.0%] Duration: 2 hours 20 minutes |
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2. | Rollout2 | 21/16 6/5 | eq: -0.142 (-0.020) |
| Player: Opponent: | 51.47% (G:10.93% B:0.47%) 48.53% (G:27.98% B:1.17%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.151...-0.134) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 hours 21 minutes |
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3. | Rollout1 | 13/7 | eq: -0.143 (-0.021) |
| Player: Opponent: | 50.90% (G:11.17% B:0.51%) 49.10% (G:26.58% B:1.24%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.150...-0.135) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 hours 15 minutes |
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4. | Rollout3 | 21/15 | eq: -0.149 (-0.027) |
| Player: Opponent: | 50.36% (G:11.02% B:0.48%) 49.64% (G:25.58% B:0.98%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.160...-0.137) - [0.0%] Duration: 31 minutes 47 seconds |
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5. | Rollout4 | 24/23* 13/8 | eq: -0.157 (-0.035) |
| Player: Opponent: | 48.24% (G:11.61% B:0.52%) 51.76% (G:20.80% B:0.75%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.172...-0.142) - [0.0%] Duration: 21 minutes 25 seconds |
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6. | Rollout5 | 24/23* 21/16 | eq: -0.160 (-0.038) |
| Player: Opponent: | 48.85% (G:11.39% B:0.52%) 51.15% (G:21.53% B:0.86%) | Conf.: ± 0.018 (-0.178...-0.142) - [0.0%] Duration: 22 minutes 52 seconds |
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7. | Rollout6 | 22/21 13/8 | eq: -0.167 (-0.045) |
| Player: Opponent: | 50.19% (G:11.06% B:0.50%) 49.81% (G:26.31% B:1.08%) | Conf.: ± 0.020 (-0.187...-0.147) - [0.0%] Duration: 9 minutes 10 seconds |
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8. | Rollout7 | 21/20 13/8 | eq: -0.171 (-0.049) |
| Player: Opponent: | 49.23% (G:10.68% B:0.46%) 50.77% (G:24.37% B:0.79%) | Conf.: ± 0.021 (-0.192...-0.150) - [0.0%] Duration: 9 minutes 24 seconds |
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9. | Rollout7 | 13/8 4/3 | eq: -0.189 (-0.067) |
| Player: Opponent: | 49.02% (G:10.69% B:0.45%) 50.98% (G:24.95% B:1.06%) | Conf.: ± 0.020 (-0.210...-0.169) - [0.0%] Duration: 9 minutes 27 seconds |
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10. | Rollout7 | 20/14* | eq: -0.233 (-0.111) |
| Player: Opponent: | 47.82% (G:10.81% B:0.54%) 52.18% (G:25.25% B:1.85%) | Conf.: ± 0.025 (-0.258...-0.207) - [0.0%] Duration: 10 minutes 48 seconds |
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1 18119 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 18120 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
3 4191 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
4 2627 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
5 2628 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
6 1340 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
7 1341 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
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