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OTB and RO

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Tuesday, 4 March 2014, at 6:03 p.m.

In Response To: Cube action ATS? (John O'Hagan)

I had this position as White vs. XG the other day and had to decide whether or not to redouble. Does redoubling help or hurt my MWC here? When you're pretty far behind in the match, I've found that you usually have a redouble if you have 3 or 4 market losers and if you're within 8% of the leader's true takepoint. If you have less than 3 or 4 mkt losers, you need to be closer to the leader's tp; if you have more than 3 or 4, you can redouble even if you're more than 8% away from the leader's tp.

OTB, I estimated Black's tp to be 29% + 75% of my g's less 20% of his own with no cube vig at all (since my tp on anything but a last roll position would be ~7%). I estimated my/his g's to be ~7%/30% which makes his true tp to be around 28%. The RO shows that I really underestimated my g's since they're around 12% here.

I'm obviously nowhere near 64% in this position so I'm not "within 8% of the tp" but I do have 13 hitters, 90% or so of which are big mkt losers, which are way more than "3 or 4."

I estimated my wins around 45% (too pessimistic again) which meant I was 19% away from Black's tp. That's pretty far from an efficient redouble but I figured it was close enough given the large number of market losers.

The RO shows it to be a huge recube and still an easy take.

is Player 2

score: 6
pip: 69
11 point match
pip: 145
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-B-BBBB-a-------A-AabfbcBA:1:1:1:00:0:6:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 50.00% (G:11.91% B:0.36%) 50.85% (G:12.19% B:0.38%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 50.00% (G:27.34% B:7.38%) 49.15% (G:27.10% B:12.56%)
Cubeless Equities -0.117 +0.498
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.188 (-0.303)±0.009 (+0.179..+0.198)
Redouble/Take:+0.492±0.013 (+0.478..+0.505)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.508)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 13 minutes 27 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

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