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Cube action ATS?

Posted By: Keene
Date: Monday, 3 March 2014, at 7:44 p.m.

In Response To: Cube action ATS? (John O'Hagan)

The problem with not having the diagram next to you when you write these things out, is that you dont see that there is already a brown blot on the other half of the board. That changes everything!!!

Grr.

So, now my thinking is (as I open another browser window).

I think the average losses on a turned cube are probably less - call it 6pts. There is some slime where brown cannot lift the blot, and white gets some additional indirect shots - so that serves to increase the wins count from the remaining non-immediate hitters. Lets increase that from 1-2 to 2-3, and lets increase the points on whites wins to slightly more than 4pts - say 5pts.

New equity math says: 45% instead of 39%, and its not 0% on the rd/lose scenario, its 4-5%. Call it 5%. Risking 17% to gain 23%. 17/(17+23) = 41.5% doubling window.

Now, with the window there, then 14/36 wins makes it real close. I will err on the side of caution, and say marginal ND/T.

Is the take in question? I dont think it is, but I also dont think you are air-grabbing it when it comes over.

Keene

Messages In This Thread

• Cube action ATS?
  John O'Hagan -- Monday, 3 March 2014, at 4:48 p.m.
  • Cube action ATS?
    Keene -- Monday, 3 March 2014, at 6:10 p.m.
  • Cube action ATS?
    Keene -- Monday, 3 March 2014, at 7:44 p.m.
  • Cube action ATS?
    Casper Van der Tak -- Tuesday, 4 March 2014, at 12:45 a.m.
  • Cube action ATS?
    HOMINID -- Tuesday, 4 March 2014, at 11:13 a.m.
  • Cube action ATS?
    ah_clem -- Tuesday, 4 March 2014, at 2:58 p.m.
  • OTB and RO
    John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 4 March 2014, at 6:03 p.m.
    • OTB and RO
      Mr Majestyk -- Tuesday, 4 March 2014, at 6:52 p.m.