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The Donkey Corner #1 - Rollouts

Posted By: Neil Robins
Date: Sunday, 16 March 2014, at 3:25 a.m.

In Response To: The Donkey Corner #1 - Rollouts (Stick)

What I don't agree with is that your rollout takes no account of skill difference in the pay of the rest of this game, even accepting that it's not a particularly difficult position to play out.

Re-running your rollout 2-ply against 0-ply with the same MET probably only brings in about half the required 100 elo difference, so I'm concluding that it's likely properly a small pass for a 100 elo weaker player and definitely not a very clear take.

The score (after 0 games) is: Domkey 2, Neil 0 (match to 7 points)

Move number 2: Neil on roll, cube decision?


 ' ' ' '1X5X1X3X1X ' '3O

2O ' ' '2O3O2X3O2O ' '2X
Position ID: 0NeFwQDDzg0HAA Match ID: cAngACAAAAAE

Neil doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity +0.586(Money: +0.588)
Cubeful equities:
1.Double, take +0.970
2.Double, pass +1.000 +0.030
3.No double +0.904 -0.065
Proper cube action:Double, take
Rollout details
WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Centered 1-cube0.7840.0350.002-0.2160.0160.001 +0.586 +0.904
Standard error0.0010.0010.000-0.0010.0010.000 0.002 0.006
Player Domkey owns 2-cube0.7860.0350.002-0.2140.0160.001 +1.085 +0.970
Standard error0.0010.0010.000-0.0010.0010.000 0.005 0.006
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 705181025 and quasi-random dice
Player 0:
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Player 1:
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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