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The Donkey Corner #1 - Rollouts

Posted By: Neil Robins
Date: Sunday, 16 March 2014, at 3:25 a.m.

In Response To: The Donkey Corner #1 - Rollouts (Stick)

What I don't agree with is that your rollout takes no account of skill difference in the pay of the rest of this game, even accepting that it's not a particularly difficult position to play out.

Re-running your rollout 2-ply against 0-ply with the same MET probably only brings in about half the required 100 elo difference, so I'm concluding that it's likely properly a small pass for a 100 elo weaker player and definitely not a very clear take.

The score (after 0 games) is: Domkey 2, Neil 0 (match to 7 points)

Move number 2: Neil on roll, cube decision?

Domkey	137
Neil	111
Position ID: 0NeFwQDDzg0HAA Match ID: cAngACAAAAAE

• Neil doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.586	(Money: +0.588)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.970
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.030
3.	No double	+0.904	-0.065
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.784 0.035 0.002 - 0.216 0.016 0.001 +0.586 +0.904 Standard error 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.002 0.006 Player Domkey owns 2-cube 0.786 0.035 0.002 - 0.214 0.016 0.001 +1.085 +0.970 Standard error 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.005 0.006
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 705181025 and quasi-random dice
Player 0:
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Player 1:
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• The Donkey Corner #1
  Stick -- Friday, 14 March 2014, at 2:51 p.m.
  • The Donkey Corner #1
    Casper Van der Tak -- Friday, 14 March 2014, at 3:39 p.m.
    • The Donkey Corner #1
      Stick -- Friday, 14 March 2014, at 3:42 p.m.
      • The Donkey Corner #1
        Casper Van der Tak -- Friday, 14 March 2014, at 4:19 p.m.
  • The Donkey Corner #1
    Backgame -- Friday, 14 March 2014, at 3:43 p.m.
    • The Donkey Corner #1
      garyo -- Saturday, 15 March 2014, at 7:51 a.m.
  • The Donkey Corner #1
    Mr Majestyk -- Friday, 14 March 2014, at 4:20 p.m.
  • The Donkey Corner #1
    MishyPoo -- Friday, 14 March 2014, at 4:24 p.m.
    • The Donkey Corner #1
      Casper Van der Tak -- Friday, 14 March 2014, at 4:28 p.m.
  • The Donkey Corner #1
    David Rennie -- Friday, 14 March 2014, at 4:40 p.m.
    • The Donkey Corner #1
      David Rennie -- Friday, 14 March 2014, at 4:47 p.m.
  • The Donkey Corner #1
    Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 14 March 2014, at 6:51 p.m.
  • Game 1 move 15
    Donby -- Friday, 14 March 2014, at 8:03 p.m.
    • Game 1 move 15
      Stick -- Friday, 14 March 2014, at 8:57 p.m.
  • The Donkey Corner #1
    John O'Hagan -- Friday, 14 March 2014, at 9:30 p.m.
  • The Donkey Corner #1
    neilkaz -- Friday, 14 March 2014, at 10:47 p.m.
  • The Donkey Corner #1 - Rollouts
    Stick -- Saturday, 15 March 2014, at 2:19 p.m.
    • The Donkey Corner #1 - Rollouts
      Casper Van der Tak -- Saturday, 15 March 2014, at 2:44 p.m.
      • The Donkey Corner #1 - Rollouts
        Stick -- Saturday, 15 March 2014, at 3:15 p.m.
        • The Donkey Corner #1 - Rollouts
          Neil Robins -- Sunday, 16 March 2014, at 3:25 a.m.
          • The Donkey Corner #1 - Rollouts
            Stick -- Sunday, 16 March 2014, at 7:35 p.m.
            • The Donkey Corner #1 - Rollouts
              Casper Van der Tak -- Monday, 17 March 2014, at 1:02 a.m.
              • The Donkey Corner #1 - Rollouts
                Maik Stiebler -- Monday, 17 March 2014, at 10:47 a.m.
                • The Donkey Corner #1 - Rollouts
                  Casper Van der Tak -- Monday, 17 March 2014, at 12:14 p.m.
                  • The Donkey Corner #1 - Rollouts
                    Maik Stiebler -- Monday, 17 March 2014, at 1:15 p.m.
        • The Donkey Corner #1 - Rollouts
          Casper Van der Tak -- Sunday, 16 March 2014, at 5:28 a.m.