Revisiting O'Hagan AtS Cube/Ray Response
Posted By: Stick In Response To: Revisiting O'Hagan AtS Cube/Ray Response (Coolrey)
Date: Tuesday, 15 April 2014, at 5:32 a.m.
In Response To: Revisiting O'Hagan AtS Cube/Ray Response (Coolrey)
I hate repeating myself but sometimes it seems like I need to do that. I said 11.X% is the number XG reports for the amount of passes needed and that you need much much higher than that playing against your 'unknown quantities' as you stated it. I don't know what that number is offhand.
Neil's opponents taking next turn are not out of line with maximizing their match equity, only with XG. I don't know that he's gaining anything by waiting that's why it's such a horrible cube the turn before knowing the opponent is going to take because he's Neil Kazaross.
I've always been a big advocate to adjusting to the opponent it's just there are so many possible variables at work sometimes it's hard to figure out the best route. I don't think, or I hope that people aren't taking this as me suggesting not to play AtO. I've often argued for dropping takes and to a lesser degree cubing no doubles.
There are no prizes for figuring out really close decisions OTB
Yes, there are. If you figure out it's a close cube decision OtB then you can make your final decision much easier based on other factors. This example specifically I think you're crazy if you think Neil is a better player than you and you knew this was a close ND and you wouldn't cube.
I have more experience than Stick here, because...
Stopped playing live, yes. In the last 6 months I've probably went through thoroughly about 1,000 matches, most of them live. Figure you average 1 ABT event a month for 10 years and 10 matches per tournament. That puts you barely ahead of my last 6 months of study for live matches. #3133
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