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BGonline.org Forums
Too Good To Double Confusion
Posted By: phil simborg In Response To: Too Good To Double Confusion (AP)
Date: Sunday, 8 June 2014, at 8:23 a.m.
You hit the nail on the head when you said it is all about whether or not he is still dropping on the next roll. If he has a roll or sequence that gets him to a take on the next roll, we call that a "market gainer." If you can only get a small handful of gammons, but he has no market gainers, it is still okay to play on for the gammon. The ratio of market gainers to gammons is not easy to measure definitively, but one of the best tools you can use to help you see this is to use the dice distribution feature of XG. You can pretty well see what sequences gain his market as well as how much the market is gained by. For example, if he has some sequences where not only is he taking, but he may even be winning, you have a much stronger reason to cash.
You also have to factor in the value of gammons and of course, the volatility of the position is a huge factor. Lastly, you must finally consider the human factors...you might think you might be too good, but he might take. You might see market gainers, but he might still pass anyway. You might see problems playing on but he might not play on properly (and you might not either!).
The best rule of thumb I know of is that if you are on the fence, you are probably better off cashing.
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