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Too Good To Double Confusion

Posted By: AP
Date: Saturday, 7 June 2014, at 10:51 p.m.

I understand that if my gammon wins are twice the amount of my losses, I am in too-good-to-double territory. That said, I have seen many positions where the player on roll is nowhere close to this threshold, yet the position is still too good...I guess the key is that even if he rolls poorly he can likely get a pass next roll so there's not much to lose now by waiting to double. Even with that intuition though, I have no idea how to actually prove to myself that a position is too-good, even when I have access to the XG evaluations.

For example, take the posted position, where bot analysis gives Blue ~ 63% wins and 24% gammons, with White winnings 8% gammons. How can I demonstrate to myself that this position is too-good?

Any insight would be appreciated.

Match to 7, White leads 4-3
Blue on roll. Cube action?
White137

Blue153
GNUBg Id: 4LcPAERjGyxAFg:UQngAEAAGAAA
XGID=aB-aBBB----BA----ebfA-BA--:1:1:1:00:3:4:0:7:8

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