|
BGonline.org Forums
Calculating gammon values
Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Wednesday, 16 July 2014, at 6:42 p.m.
In Response To: Calculating gammon values (Tom Keith)
Agree completely with Tom's comments. Overvaluing gammons here is a common error that I see. For example note how big an error an opening 64P is.
3+% additional net gammons might seem like it should overcome 1.1% additional game losses especially if think that your own gammons are worth more but it is actually a sizeable error for an opening play.
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 1673 point match pip: 167
score: 1
Blue is Player 1XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:64:1:0:0:3:10 Blue to play 64
1. Book1 24/14 eq: -0.1889
Player:
Opponent:50.52% (G:13.83% B:1.76%)
49.48% (G:14.01% B:1.06%)Conf.: ±0.0018 (-0.1907...-0.1871) - [100.0%] 2. Book1 24/18 13/9 eq: -0.1952 (-0.0062)
Player:
Opponent:50.13% (G:15.28% B:2.06%)
49.87% (G:14.02% B:1.31%)Conf.: ±0.0019 (-0.1970...-0.1933) - [0.0%] 3. Book2 8/2 6/2 eq: -0.2234 (-0.0345)
Player:
Opponent:49.43% (G:17.92% B:3.03%)
50.57% (G:14.90% B:1.37%)Conf.: ±0.0037 (-0.2271...-0.2197) - [0.0%] 4. Book3 24/20 13/7 eq: -0.2749 (-0.0859)
Player:
Opponent:48.28% (G:17.66% B:2.69%)
51.72% (G:14.09% B:1.61%)Conf.: ±0.0070 (-0.2819...-0.2678) - [0.0%] 5. 3-ply 13/3 eq: -0.2851 (-0.0962)
Player:
Opponent:47.47% (G:13.24% B:0.68%)
52.53% (G:14.60% B:0.75%)1 Generated by Steven Carey on 7/31/2012 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
93312 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92170022
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 Generated by Steven Carey on 7/31/2012 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
23328 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92170022
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
3 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 2/26/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38613390
Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply RedeXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
|
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.