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Calculating gammon values

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Wednesday, 16 July 2014, at 6:42 p.m.

In Response To: Calculating gammon values (Tom Keith)

Agree completely with Tom's comments. Overvaluing gammons here is a common error that I see. For example note how big an error an opening 64P is.

3+% additional net gammons might seem like it should overcome 1.1% additional game losses especially if think that your own gammons are worth more but it is actually a sizeable error for an opening play.

 White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 167 3 point match pip: 167 score: 1 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:64:1:0:0:3:10
Blue to play 64

1.Book124/14eq: -0.1889
 Player:Opponent: 50.52% (G:13.83% B:1.76%)49.48% (G:14.01% B:1.06%) Conf.: ±0.0018 (-0.1907...-0.1871) - [100.0%]
2.Book124/18 13/9eq: -0.1952 (-0.0062)
 Player:Opponent: 50.13% (G:15.28% B:2.06%)49.87% (G:14.02% B:1.31%) Conf.: ±0.0019 (-0.1970...-0.1933) - [0.0%]
3.Book28/2 6/2eq: -0.2234 (-0.0345)
 Player:Opponent: 49.43% (G:17.92% B:3.03%)50.57% (G:14.90% B:1.37%) Conf.: ±0.0037 (-0.2271...-0.2197) - [0.0%]
4.Book324/20 13/7eq: -0.2749 (-0.0859)
 Player:Opponent: 48.28% (G:17.66% B:2.69%)51.72% (G:14.09% B:1.61%) Conf.: ±0.0070 (-0.2819...-0.2678) - [0.0%]
5.3-ply13/3eq: -0.2851 (-0.0962)
 Player:Opponent: 47.47% (G:13.24% B:0.68%)52.53% (G:14.60% B:0.75%)
1 Generated by Steven Carey on 7/31/2012 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
93312 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92170022
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 Generated by Steven Carey on 7/31/2012 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
23328 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92170022
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

3 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 2/26/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38613390
Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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