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BGonline.org Forums
DQ: Consider the bar point? *** Rollout ***
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: DQ: Consider the bar point? *** Rollout *** (leobueno)
Date: Thursday, 17 July 2014, at 11:38 p.m.
Rollout settings are a matter of personal preference, but when I do rollouts, I don't pay much attention to the confidence percentages (i.e., what you're referring to when you say that you stop at 99.9%/0.1%) but I do pay close attention to the confidence intervals (which in your rollout are ±0.027 and ±0.025). If these intervals are less than ±0.005 then, with rare exceptions, I don't bother rolling the decision out further. On the other hand, if these intervals are greater than ±0.020 then I usually will at least double the number of trials unless the equity differences between the plays themselves are large (on the order of 0.100, say).
The size of the intervals is a measure of the uncertainty in the numerical value of the equities (or equity differences) which is what we usually care about. On the other hand, 100% confidence just means that we're 100% confident that the plays are not equal in equity. In many cases, even before doing a rollout, we're extremely confident (in an informal sense) that the equities are not exactly equal, so having the computer reassure us that it's very sure that the plays are not exactly equally good is not telling us much.
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