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DQ: Consider the bar point? *** Rollout ***

Posted By: Tom Keith
Date: Thursday, 24 July 2014, at 12:44 a.m.

In Response To: DQ: Consider the bar point? *** Rollout *** (Timothy Chow)

I did point out that the answer to #1 is no, strictly speaking.

That's why I was careful to use the words "strictly speaking" in my calculator analogy.

In most cases, I just don't care that much about the probability that the top play is the best one. I care more about the equity difference between the plays.

Perfectly understandable.

I believe that that's actually what most others are interested in too.

I think it depends on the situation. Suppose you are rolling out positions to verify that your error rate was computed accurately. If, in a short rollout, the bot says it is 100% sure your play is best, then there is no point in doing a longer rollout of that play. (Should you be that focused on your error rate? I don't know; that's a different question.)

Anyway, with your explanation I think we are now pretty much on the same page.

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