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Cube action?

Posted By: scotty
Date: Friday, 18 July 2014, at 7:06 p.m.

In Response To: Cube action? (John O'Hagan)

I'm just starting out in my study of match equity, and haven't got as far as looking at recubes.

I have read that a player needs greater game winning chances to give up control of the cube, than he/she does to offer a centered cube, and that certainly makes sense to me.

Looking at the position, player 2 has several more 5s and 6s to play than player 1 does. Player 2 will likely get a shot at an outfield blot in the next few exchanges, unless player 1 can roll doublets. Player 1 does not have any roll of the dice which would expose a blot on this turn, and only 66 and 55 market losers. My gut says that player 2 can wait one exchange before making a cube decision. No recube

If player 1 cubes, I suspect that player two has a take and an auto recube to make this game for the match.

If player 2 drops, he trails 1a 5a MWC = 15.8%

If player 2 takes, recubes, wins MWC = 100%

If player 2 takes, recubes, loses MWC = 0%

Player 2 needs a 15.8 chance of winning this game to take the initial recube. So i think this would be a huge take for player 2, and player 1 should expect to play this game for the match if he recubes.

At 3a 5a, player one has equity of 75.1%

no double, win MWC = 84.2%

double, win MWC = 100%

no double, lose MWC = 50%

double, lose MWC = 0

risk = 50% gain = 15.8%

player 1 needs 50/(50 + 15.8) game winning chances to cube, which is slightly over 75%.

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