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Cube action?

Posted By: HOMINID
Date: Saturday, 19 July 2014, at 11:45 a.m.

In Response To: Cube action? (John O'Hagan)

Its great to see the use of simple roll odds to calculate cube decisions a hobby horse of mine. Deep thought is given to it in analysis mode. Over the board one has to give the opponent and the clock respect. A reasonable quick calculation is needed.

Brown has the timing to wait out white. The worst that can reasonably be expected is that brown will get a pop at a single blot with odds between 30%-39% to hit. I will call that 35%. Of course there are some nice rolls for white, lets deduct 10%. That gives 75% against being hit. An easy double as far as I am concerned. Will brown take? that's not my problem I am going to win from here and I cant lose the match whatever happens. Of course there are scenarios where brown takes and wins a gammon but that's not going to happen today. Its a game of odds you gotta play them. This approach of course will be too simplistic for some.

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