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Rollout

Posted By: Ian Dunstan
Date: Saturday, 26 July 2014, at 12:22 a.m.

In Response To: The trouble with doubles is... (Ian Dunstan)





White is gnubg

score: 0
pip: 152
3 point match
pip: 144
score: 0

Blue is ian dunstan
XGID=-a--A-DbC---cFA--b-e-aa---:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:3:3
Blue to play 33

1.Rollout113/10(3) 4/1* eq: +0.375
Player:
Opponent:
58.97% (G:12.19% B:0.64%)
41.03% (G:9.18% B:0.22%)
Conf.: 0.020 (+0.355...+0.395) - [99.2%]
Duration: 38 minutes 42 seconds
2.Rollout114/11 13/10(2) 4/1* eq: +0.341 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
57.88% (G:12.51% B:1.04%)
42.12% (G:10.34% B:0.66%)
Conf.: 0.020 (+0.321...+0.360) - [0.8%]
Duration: 37 minutes 03 seconds
3.Rollout114/8 13/10(2)eq: +0.281 (-0.094)
Player:
Opponent:
57.14% (G:9.09% B:0.53%)
42.86% (G:9.37% B:0.34%)
Conf.: 0.018 (+0.263...+0.299) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 10 seconds
4.Rollout114/11 13/10(3)eq: +0.260 (-0.115)
Player:
Opponent:
56.40% (G:12.04% B:1.55%)
43.60% (G:10.66% B:0.46%)
Conf.: 0.020 (+0.240...+0.279) - [0.0%]
Duration: 50 minutes 56 seconds
5.Rollout114/5 8/5eq: +0.220 (-0.155)
Player:
Opponent:
56.09% (G:9.76% B:0.45%)
43.91% (G:10.34% B:0.51%)
Conf.: 0.017 (+0.202...+0.237) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 08 seconds
6.4-ply13/10(2) 8/5(2)eq: +0.244 (-0.131)
Player:
Opponent:
56.69% (G:11.70% B:0.53%)
43.31% (G:10.52% B:0.40%)
7.4-ply13/10(4)eq: +0.226 (-0.149)
Player:
Opponent:
56.53% (G:9.58% B:0.39%)
43.47% (G:9.56% B:0.22%)
8.4-ply13/10 8/5(2) 4/1* eq: +0.224 (-0.151)
Player:
Opponent:
55.91% (G:13.00% B:0.40%)
44.09% (G:11.83% B:0.50%)
1 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94696176
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

I made the 5pt and cleaned up a blot at the same time, that is wrong by a lot. The un-stacking of the midpoint makes sense as part of the right play, however the loose hit on the ace is equally important apparently and is not something I considered properly. It think the ace hit has more to do with trying to force gnubg forward (to make it easier to race) as opposed to the idea of a tempo hit.

I have rolled out some variations which helped my understanding of the position. I will post those shortly.

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