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Variation 4

Posted By: Ian Dunstan
Date: Sunday, 27 July 2014, at 1:47 a.m.

In Response To: Variation 3 (Ian Shaw)

Removing the blots altogether (back to the 6pt and 8pt), without adding an extra point, should see if the loose hit is about the blots or not....





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 166
3 point match
pip: 144
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--A-DbC---dFA--c-e------:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:3:10
Blue to play 33

1.Rollout113/10(3) 4/1* eq: +0.529
Player:
Opponent:		61.99% (G:11.92% B:0.25%)
38.01% (G:7.27% B:0.20%)		Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.513...+0.545) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 46 seconds
2.Rollout114/8 13/10(2)eq: +0.487 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:		61.41% (G:11.42% B:0.31%)
38.59% (G:6.74% B:0.18%)		Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.472...+0.501) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 18 seconds
3.Rollout114/5 8/5eq: +0.444 (-0.085)
Player:
Opponent:		60.15% (G:12.63% B:0.38%)
39.85% (G:7.30% B:0.21%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.432...+0.455) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 53 seconds
1 Truncated at 10 moves using 4-ply.
216 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94696176
First 3 moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Remaining moves and cube decisions: 3-ply Red

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

As I suggested before, I think the loose hit is about trying to force White forward to make getting home easier with a race lead. The whole play in the original position and some variations seems to be about racing.

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