Answers and a few comments

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Answers and a few comments

Posted By: Ian Dunstan
Date: Saturday, 13 September 2014, at 3:01 a.m.

In Response To: Quick Quiz (Ian Dunstan)

1) Making the 5pt looked clear after some shorter early analysis and it also rolled out right with stronger settings. However another play being so close to best was not quite what I intended when I posed the problem. Surprising to me was how strong slotting the 5pt with 13/11 actually was and how bad splitting was with 24/23 13/11.

White is Player 2

score: 6
pip: 154

9 point match

pip: 160
score: 5

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-b----EBB---cDa--c-d-b--B-:0:0:1:21:5:6:0:9:10
Blue to play 21

1. Rollout¹ 7/5 6/5 eq: +0.030
Player:
Opponent: 47.29% (G:14.56% B:1.19%)
52.71% (G:19.09% B:2.64%) Conf.: ą 0.011 (+0.020...+0.041) - [91.2%]
Duration: 3 hours 26 minutes
2. Rollout¹ 13/11 6/5 eq: +0.020 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent: 47.73% (G:13.65% B:1.20%)
52.27% (G:20.29% B:3.16%) Conf.: ą 0.011 (+0.009...+0.031) - [8.8%]
Duration: 3 hours 40 minutes
3. Rollout² 24/23 13/11 eq: -0.146 (-0.176)
Player:
Opponent: 44.99% (G:12.72% B:1.26%)
55.01% (G:21.32% B:1.73%) Conf.: ą 0.025 (-0.171...-0.120) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 30 seconds
4. 4-ply 13/10 eq: -0.156 (-0.186)
Player:
Opponent: 44.36% (G:12.28% B:0.61%)
55.64% (G:18.24% B:1.13%)

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 11290312
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Search interval: Huge

² 775 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 11290312
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Search interval: Huge

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

2) A solid Double and a solid Take. I was actually White in the diagram and passed the the cube from my opponent. Not doubling this position turns out to be as big a mistake as passing it.

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 98

Unlimited Game

pip: 116
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=aBBCBaBAA-----a--abbbc-bB-:0:0:-1:D:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.80% (G:18.00% B:0.91%) 72.31% (G:18.31% B:0.96%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.20% (G:13.45% B:0.59%) 27.69% (G:13.61% B:0.61%)
Cubeless Equities +0.485 +0.993
Cubeful Equities
No double: +0.652 (-0.176) ą0.009 (+0.644..+0.661)
Double/Take: +0.828 ą0.012 (+0.816..+0.841)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.172)

Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1980 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 11290312
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Search interval: Huge

Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 42 minutes 15 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

3) Once you decide 15/6 is much weaker than 21/15 then the 3 plays itself.

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 153

Unlimited Game

pip: 130
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-B-C-aCb----cE-A-c-dbA----:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 63

1. Rollout¹ 21/15 13/10 eq: -0.185
Player:
Opponent: 45.73% (G:13.31% B:0.29%)
54.27% (G:17.42% B:0.67%) Conf.: ą 0.022 (-0.207...-0.163) - [100.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 21 seconds
2. Rollout² 15/6 eq: -0.254 (-0.069)
Player:
Opponent: 43.70% (G:15.67% B:0.39%)
56.30% (G:17.69% B:0.57%) Conf.: ą 0.022 (-0.276...-0.231) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 47 seconds
3. Rollout² 21/15 6/3 eq: -0.257 (-0.072)
Player:
Opponent: 44.43% (G:12.60% B:0.31%)
55.57% (G:19.40% B:0.68%) Conf.: ą 0.022 (-0.279...-0.235) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 53 seconds

¹ 537 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 11290312
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Search interval: Huge

² 536 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 11290312
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Search interval: Huge

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

4) Pre-clearing the bar was easy for most. OtB I talked myself into clearing the back point. I need more work on bearins it seems.

White is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 117

5 point match
Crawford

pip: 82
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=--bCBCCB-B--a-----bcbbba--:0:0:1:31:0:4:1:5:10
Blue to play 31

1. Rollout¹ 7/6 7/4 eq: +0.808
Player:
Opponent: 89.84% (G:11.70% B:0.12%)
10.16% (G:0.32% B:0.02%) Conf.: ą 0.003 (+0.804...+0.811) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 46 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 9/5 eq: +0.731 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent: 86.14% (G:8.09% B:0.18%)
13.86% (G:0.61% B:0.07%) Conf.: ą 0.003 (+0.728...+0.735) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 56 seconds

¹ 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 11290312
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Search interval: Huge

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

5) Bringing more material close and minimising the damage from a 4, particularly 44, appears to be the key to this problem. Initial analysis had 13/8 4/3 as a firm favourite by a larger margin, a longer and stronger rollout makes other plays close.

White is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 145

5 point match

pip: 110
score: 1

Blue is Player 1

XGID=c-BBABBAA----C---cbeA---b-:1:-1:1:51:1:4:0:5:10
Blue to play 51

1. Rollout¹ 13/8 4/3 eq: +2.144
Player:
Opponent: 90.66% (G:63.45% B:5.76%)
9.34% (G:1.29% B:0.06%) Conf.: ą 0.004 (+2.140...+2.149) - [100.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 49 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 13/8 7/6 eq: +2.128 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent: 90.11% (G:63.21% B:5.96%)
9.89% (G:1.59% B:0.10%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (+2.124...+2.133) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 23 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 13/12 13/8 eq: +2.122 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent: 89.80% (G:63.17% B:5.55%)
10.20% (G:2.17% B:0.14%) Conf.: ą 0.004 (+2.117...+2.126) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 17 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 20/15 4/3 eq: +2.118 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent: 89.93% (G:62.90% B:5.49%)
10.07% (G:1.58% B:0.10%) Conf.: ą 0.004 (+2.114...+2.123) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 45 seconds
5. Rollout² 20/15 13/12 eq: +2.106 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent: 89.02% (G:63.17% B:3.87%)
10.98% (G:2.69% B:0.22%) Conf.: ą 0.006 (+2.100...+2.112) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27.5 seconds
6. Rollout³ 20/15 5/4 eq: +2.083 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent: 88.95% (G:62.13% B:3.76%)
11.05% (G:2.09% B:0.15%) Conf.: ą 0.007 (+2.076...+2.089) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23.8 seconds

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 11290312
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Search interval: Huge

² Truncated at 11 moves using 4-ply.
216 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 44171799
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply Red

³ Truncated at 11 moves using XG Roller.
216 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1150556
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply Red

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

Quick Quiz
Ian Dunstan -- Wednesday, 10 September 2014, at 11:12 a.m.
- Quick Quiz
  scotty -- Wednesday, 10 September 2014, at 11:25 a.m.
- Quick Quiz
  Tom Keith -- Wednesday, 10 September 2014, at 1:05 p.m.
- Quick Quiz
  Wolfgang -- Wednesday, 10 September 2014, at 2:11 p.m.
- Quick Quiz
  garyo -- Wednesday, 10 September 2014, at 3:55 p.m.
- Quick Quiz
  Taper_Mike -- Wednesday, 10 September 2014, at 4:49 p.m.
- Quick Quiz
  Keene -- Wednesday, 10 September 2014, at 4:54 p.m.
- Quick Counter Quiz
  Quizmaster -- Wednesday, 10 September 2014, at 5:28 p.m.
  - Quick Counter Quiz
    Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 10 September 2014, at 5:54 p.m.
    - Quick Counter Quiz
      Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 10 September 2014, at 6:04 p.m.
  - Quick Counter Quiz
    Keene -- Wednesday, 10 September 2014, at 6:54 p.m.
  - Quick Counter Quiz
    Dmitriy Obukhov -- Wednesday, 10 September 2014, at 7:03 p.m.
  - Quick Counter Quiz
    Wolfgang -- Wednesday, 10 September 2014, at 7:10 p.m.
  - Quick Counter Quiz
    Ian Dunstan -- Thursday, 11 September 2014, at 6:10 a.m.
- Quick Quiz
  MandM1951 -- Wednesday, 10 September 2014, at 5:30 p.m.
- Quick Quiz
  Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 10 September 2014, at 5:41 p.m.
  - Quick Quiz
    Keene -- Wednesday, 10 September 2014, at 6:32 p.m.
- Quick Quiz
  gudgen -- Thursday, 11 September 2014, at 12:36 a.m.
- Answers and a few comments
  Ian Dunstan -- Saturday, 13 September 2014, at 3:01 a.m.
  - XGR++ of Stick's "Counter Quiz"
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 15 September 2014, at 1:46 a.m.
    - XGR++ of Stick's "Counter Quiz"
      Ian Dunstan -- Wednesday, 17 September 2014, at 10:57 a.m.
      - XGR++ of Stick's "Counter Quiz"
        Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 18 September 2014, at 12:55 a.m.

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Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	71.80% (G:18.00% B:0.91%)	72.31% (G:18.31% B:0.96%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	28.20% (G:13.45% B:0.59%)	27.69% (G:13.61% B:0.61%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.485	+0.993
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.652 (-0.176)	ą0.009 (+0.644..+0.661)
Double/Take:	+0.828	ą0.012 (+0.816..+0.841)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.172)

Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1980 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 11290312 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Search interval: Huge

Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 42 minutes 15 seconds