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52S-C.-2-2 5184 XG Rollout Result Posted

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Sunday, 14 September 2014, at 5:54 p.m.

In Response To: What is XG Thinking here? (Dmitriy Obukhov)





White is Player 2

score: 15
pip: 160
17 point match
pip: 167
score: 15

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-a--E-C---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:00:15:15:0:17:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 50.39% (G:16.55% B:2.32%) 50.12% (G:14.63% B:1.69%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 49.61% (G:18.02% B:3.58%) 49.88% (G:15.32% B:2.13%)
Cubeless Equities -0.019 +0.007
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.022±0.008 (+0.014..+0.030)
Double/Take:+0.007 (-0.015)±0.008 (-0.001..+0.014)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.978)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 1.5%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:99.7%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 23 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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