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Vegas Finals – Akiko Yazawa vs. Kit Woolsey – Three Cube Decisions – XGR++ Evals

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Tuesday, 25 November 2014, at 7:42 a.m.

In Response To: Vegas Finals – Akiko Yazawa vs. Kit Woolsey – Three Cube Decisions (Taper_Mike)

#1 Akiko on roll
White is Kit Woolsey

score: 6
pip: 17
17 point match
pip: 14
score: 12

Blue is Akiko Yazawa
XGID=-CAC-----------------abca-:1:1:1:00:12:6:0:17:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 76.705% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 76.692% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 23.295% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 23.308% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.5341 +0.9144
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.6774
Redouble/Take:+0.4212 (-0.2562)
Redouble/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.3226)
 
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 30.7%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

#2 Akiko on roll
White is Kit Woolsey

score: 6
pip: 11
17 point match
pip: 8
score: 12

Blue is Akiko Yazawa
XGID=-CAA------------------bba-:1:1:1:00:12:6:0:17:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 83.692% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 83.692% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 16.308% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 16.308% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.6738 +1.1960
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.8453 (-0.0886)
Redouble/Take:+0.9339
Redouble/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.0661)
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

#3 Kit on roll
White is Kit Woolsey

score: 6
pip: 11
17 point match
pip: 4
score: 12

Blue is Akiko Yazawa
XGID=-BA-------------------bba-:2:-1:-1:00:12:6:0:17:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 19.483% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 19.483% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 80.517% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 80.517% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
  Cubeless Equities -0.6103 -0.4549
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:-0.5714 (-0.1165)
Redouble/Take:-0.4549
Redouble/Pass:+1.0000 (+1.4549)
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

 

These are some pretty smart players. They got all three of these just right. Akiko considered for 2.5 minutes before offering the cube in position #2. It looked like she was doing MET calculations to me. The match ended on an 8-cube when Kit failed to roll the doublets he needed to win.

Mike

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