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Cube action after Kit enters 4 checkers with 55 Rollout
Posted By: Taper_Mike In Response To: Vegas Finals Akiko Yazawa vs. Kit Woolsey Three Cube Decisions (David Rennie)
Date: Tuesday, 25 November 2014, at 10:56 a.m.
David, your memory is scary good! For the rest of us, you can find this position at the 56:10 mark of the YouTube video.
Kit Woolsey once told me that he has a 0.02 threshold for checker errors. He would like to keep his mistakes below that, but understands that he cant do much better. For cube actions, Kit told me, that threshold is 0.08. He is happy when his errors less than that. In this case, he was off the mark, but not by all that much.
Down by 50 pips in a must-hit situation, I would have dropped in a flash.
Mike
White is Kit Woolsey
score: 3
pip: 12317 point match pip: 73
score: 7
Blue is Akiko YazawaXGID=-BBCBdBBA-------A--bcbb-b-:1:1:1:00:7:3:0:17:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take Player Winning Chances: 79.269% (G:14.910% B:0.053%) 81.001% (G:13.061% B:0.052%) Opponent Winning Chances: 20.731% (G:1.250% B:0.029%) 18.999% (G:1.148% B:0.029%) Cubeless Equities +0.7173 +1.3633 Cubeful Equities No redouble: +0.8530 (-0.1470) ±0.0021 (+0.8508..+0.8551) Redouble/Take: +1.1143 (+0.1143) ±0.0036 (+1.1107..+1.1180) Redouble/Pass: +1.0000 Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass Rollout details 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 9520737
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 18 minutes 14 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
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