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Cube action after Kit enters 4 checkers with 55 – Rollout

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Tuesday, 25 November 2014, at 10:56 a.m.

In Response To: Vegas Finals – Akiko Yazawa vs. Kit Woolsey – Three Cube Decisions (David Rennie)

David, your memory is scary good! For the rest of us, you can find this position at the 56:10 mark of the YouTube video.

Kit Woolsey once told me that he has a 0.02 threshold for checker errors. He would like to keep his mistakes below that, but understands that he can’t do much better. For cube actions, Kit told me, that threshold is 0.08. He is happy when his errors less than that. In this case, he was off the mark, but not by all that much.

Down by 50 pips in a must-hit situation, I would have dropped in a flash.

Mike





White is Kit Woolsey

score: 3
pip: 123
17 point match
pip: 73
score: 7

Blue is Akiko Yazawa
XGID=-BBCBdBBA-------A--bcbb-b-:1:1:1:00:7:3:0:17:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 79.269% (G:14.910% B:0.053%) 81.001% (G:13.061% B:0.052%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 20.731% (G:1.250% B:0.029%) 18.999% (G:1.148% B:0.029%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.7173 +1.3633
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.8530 (-0.1470)±0.0021 (+0.8508..+0.8551)
Redouble/Take:+1.1143 (+0.1143)±0.0036 (+1.1107..+1.1180)
Redouble/Pass:+1.0000
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 9520737
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 18 minutes 14 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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