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Cube action after Kit enters 4 checkers with 55 – Rollout

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 25 November 2014, at 2:58 p.m.

In Response To: Cube action after Kit enters 4 checkers with 55 – Rollout (Taper_Mike)

If anyone thinks the decision is obvious, perhaps the variant below will give pause.

It's interesting to me that Kit reportedly uses a factor of 4 between his cube and checker thresholds. I personally use a factor of 2.





White is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 126
17 point match
pip: 74
score: 7

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBCBdBBA--------A-cbbbb--:1:1:1:00:7:3:0:17:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 76.49% (G:15.12% B:0.06%) 78.00% (G:13.86% B:0.05%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.51% (G:1.84% B:0.05%) 22.00% (G:1.81% B:0.04%)
Cubeless Equities +0.657 +1.236
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.818 (-0.182)±0.005 (+0.813..+0.823)
Redouble/Take:+1.010 (+0.010)±0.008 (+1.001..+1.018)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:99.0%
Duration: 13 minutes 58 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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