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OLM 20150306B The Prime Factors

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Sunday, 8 March 2015, at 1:09 a.m.

In Response To: OLM 20150306B The Prime Factors (Chuck Bower)

(BoE calc's with the aid of a physical BG board below.)

If stay this roll and promise to stay next turn (by playing 12/7, 6/4 guaranteeing only 55 and 66 force us to break our promise) then Dillies leave us a blot ~28% of the time (not 20% as I estimated).

Besides the 25% of the time we have no choice but to stay next turn, of the remaining 75% we have the option to stay we should (if staying is correct now...) stay 75% of those. So the bottom line is that we stay 25% + (75% * 75%) or 13/16 = 81%, discounted by the 2/36 we're forced to leave.

Correcting both of my earlier estimates with these, by staying we win ~2.25% cubeful and lose an extra ~7% gammons.

I don't know the Gammon Price here but it's unlikely smaller than $-play. So by these calcs we should leave, although (even if I'm right) it's fairly close.

P.S. Their actual 22 roll is one of the few interesting replies. Have fun with it, Dillies! :)

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