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Need a reference RO

Posted By: Kevin Finch
Date: Saturday, 21 March 2015, at 12:26 a.m.

In Response To: Need a reference RO (Igor)

Well, I think that you spoiled the surprise. :)

But yep, a small error at .022 to take. Still, I bet most people would run away from this double thinking it was a huge Pass.

And note the second position, which is a solid take. The only change is that the two spares on top's six have been dropped down to his 5.

So overall, I think the point is valid: when you have a 3 pt anchor the situation is probably not as dire as you might imagine (certainly not as dire as I had imagined). The good news is that you probably won't get gammoned (when the race is about even, as here), which allows you to assess the position more from the standpoint of the race. Of course this has its limits: when a 3 pt anchor is behind a full prime that is almost always a Pass.

The rollouts:





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 134
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 125
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=----B-DBC-B-cb--ababbbB---:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 77.17% (G:4.30% B:0.12%) 77.50% (G:4.46% B:0.18%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.83% (G:1.18% B:0.05%) 22.50% (G:1.38% B:0.07%)
Cubeless Equities +0.575 +1.164
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.947 (-0.053)±0.008 (+0.939..+0.955)
Double/Take:+1.022 (+0.022)±0.011 (+1.011..+1.033)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 19 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

But just a little change and we have ...





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 132
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 125
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=----BBBBC-B-cb--ababbbB---:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75.84% (G:3.68% B:0.07%) 76.25% (G:3.63% B:0.07%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.16% (G:1.35% B:0.04%) 23.75% (G:1.37% B:0.04%)
Cubeless Equities +0.540 +1.096
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.904 (-0.046)±0.008 (+0.896..+0.911)
Double/Take:+0.950±0.010 (+0.940..+0.960)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.050)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 22 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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