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What about here?
Posted By: niuniuch
Date: Tuesday, 2 June 2015, at 6:00 a.m.
In Response To: What is the proper thought process in this DMP prime v prime? (Marv Porten)
is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 1171 point match pip: 126
score: 0
is Player 1XGID=aaCBBBBBbbcbcBa:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:1:1 to play 51
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
In terms of probability of various things like: how likely you are to escape before your prime crushes or how likely you are to reenter if you get hit, a position with prime starting at 3 is much closer to a position with prime starting at 4 (like here) than at 2. Here pointing on blacks head is obvious and anything else looks like a big blunder, so I'd guess that the same move is still correct in your position, though the difference is smaller.

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