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What about here?

Posted By: niuniuch
Date: Tuesday, 2 June 2015, at 6:00 a.m.

In Response To: What is the proper thought process in this DMP prime v prime? (Marv Porten)

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 117
1 point match
pip: 126
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-a-aCBBBBB-------bbcbcB-a-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:1:1
to play 51

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

In terms of probability of various things like: how likely you are to escape before your prime crushes or how likely you are to reenter if you get hit, a position with prime starting at 3 is much closer to a position with prime starting at 4 (like here) than at 2. Here pointing on blacks head is obvious and anything else looks like a big blunder, so I'd guess that the same move is still correct in your position, though the difference is smaller.

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