Hit with the 4 and 24/23 was my play OTB even though the checker is a little more blocked in on the 23 than the 24-point. Hitting and continuing to the 20-point also looks good since it gives you more chances to make an even better anchor. However it's actually the 3rd best play. There's more duplication of your good numbers after 21/20 and it diversifies Black's good numbers from the roof. He certainly doesn't want to stack a 3rd checker on the 24-point if he rolls an ace but if you play the ace 21/20, Black can enter with the higher number and then hit you on his 5-point with the ace. Look at how much better Black's 41 and 21 play after 21/20 as opposed to 24/23. Lifting the builder on the 9 is a close 2nd choice. The 9-point builder is useful if you don't get hit but you won't be able to use it to make points if Black enters and hits loose on his 4-point. The 5K RO isn't quite stat sig, but it's close. 25/21* 24/23 is the best play.
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| XGID=-b----E-CA--dD---c-e-a--AA:0:0:1:41:0:0:3:0:10 | ||||
 to play 41 | ||||
is Player 2| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/21* 24/23 | eq: +0.232 | |||
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| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/21* 9/8 | eq: +0.219 (-0.012) | |||
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| 3. | Rollout1 | Bar/21* 21/20 | eq: +0.215 (-0.016) | |||
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| 4. | Rollout2 | Bar/21* 6/5 | eq: +0.131 (-0.101) | |||
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| 1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||||||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00