[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Gammon rate at 2aC for the trailer

Posted By: scotty
Date: Monday, 26 October 2015, at 4:51 a.m.

In Response To: What is the percentage for a gammon before the game starts? (RobertFontaine)

I have made a few attempts to determine the win rate and gammon rate at a gammon-go/gammon-save score for a few weeks now, and your question prompted me to give it another go. The following is for 2a1aC.

Can we assume that both players have a 50% winning chance? I believe not, because the trailer will forego wins to gain gammons. In the long run this rate is equal to 67.6888/32.31212 = 2.095 (if we use the Rockwell-Kazaross 25 point MET. This suggest to me that the trailer wins 100/2.095 = 47.73% in the long run. Trailer foregoes 50 - 47.73 = 2.27 wins to gain 2.27 gammons.

If the trailer had 50 wins, the match equity suggests he has (32.3112 -25) X 2 = 14.6224 gammons. By making the trade of of wins for gammons, the trailer now has 16.89% gammons and a total of 47.73% wins.

I hope someone will correct me if I am mistaken about any of this.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.