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Gammon rate at 2aC for the trailer

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 26 October 2015, at 10:42 p.m.

In Response To: Gammon rate at 2aC for the trailer (scotty)

scotty wrote:

According to the RK 25pt MET, the trailer stands to gain 67.6888 in match equity for every gammon win. The trailer stands to lose 32.3112 in match equity for each loss, giving a trade off ratio of 67.6888/32.3112 = 2.095 Even though the leader will forego some wins to avoid gammon losses, I believe the trailer, will forego even more wins to arrive at the ideal trade off point in the long run. I think that winning percentage is given by 100/2.095 = 47.73%

This part of the analysis can't be correct. The trailer's match equity at gammon go is 32.3112, but that does not mean that "the trailer stands to lose 32.3112 in match equity for each loss."

The traditional analysis is correct: The gammon value at gammon go is 1. If faced with the choice of winning x% more gammons at the cost of y% fewer wins, I will think it's a good deal if x > y and will think it's a bad deal if x < y. What matters are the match equities after the game is over, not the match equity at the beginning of the game.

However, the fact that the gammon value at gammon go is 1 does not tell us what the win rate is at gammon go. That's an additional free parameter that has to be determined empirically. As I said, when I looked into this a while ago, it was darn close to 50%. For sure, 47.73% is way off.

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