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BGonline.org Forums
Gammon rate at 2aC for the trailer
Posted By: scotty In Response To: Gammon rate at 2aC for the trailer (Timothy Chow)
Date: Monday, 26 October 2015, at 6:44 p.m.
I'm not positive about this...but if I am applying my economics background properly, the trailer should continue to forego wins until his marginal gain in match equity due to additional gammons is equal to his marginal loss in match equity due to losses. I believe that is the point where match equity is maximized in the long run.
According to the RK 25pt MET, the trailer stands to gain 67.6888 in match equity for every gammon win. The trailer stands to lose 32.3112 in match equity for each loss, giving a trade off ratio of 67.6888/32.3112 = 2.095 Even though the leader will forego some wins to avoid gammon losses, I believe the trailer, will forego even more wins to arrive at the ideal trade off point in the long run. I think that winning percentage is given by 100/2.095 = 47.73%
It is highly possible that my analysis is flawed. One fault that I see in my argument is that my calculation for winning percentage is based on match equity ATS, which would imply that optimal winning percentages vary at different gammon-go/gammon save scores. I don't know if winning percentages do vary at different gg/gs scores. If they did, that would affect cube and checker play to some degree.
In any event, I hope to gain an understanding of how to correctly determine win and gammon percentages from the MET for a range of match scores. I believe this will help me in developing a better understanding of cube action and checker play at different match scores.
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