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Better to use one more significant digit

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Monday, 26 October 2015, at 1:31 p.m.

In Response To: What is the percentage for a gammon before the game starts? (RobertFontaine)

Robert,

I saw your spreadsheet and it is clear that you are well on your way. Your result would be more accurate if you used one more significant digit for the G %. Unfortunately, XG does not easily and voluntarily give you this extra digit. You have to trick XG into giving you what you want and need.

Set up the opening position in XG and tell XG to give you the data for 53, for example. Then, from the File menu, choose "Export" and "Export to Clipboard." Then, choose "Publication" in the drop-down box at the top. Now paste this into Microsoft Word and you will see that you have tricked XG into giving you one more significant digit than it was previously willing to give you.

To demonstrate what I am talking about, check out the rollout data that appears beneath the diagram below for opening 53. Without using this trick, XG tries to tell you that you G% after opening 53 is 16.5, but as you can see below, when you get the extra digit, the G% is actually 16.47.

Again, I am suggesting that you use this method to compute the win % and G% for gammon go and gammon save, and also, the win % at DMP. Your spread sheet will need only two columns each for go and save and only one for DMP.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 167
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 167
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:53:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 53

1.xgBook18/3 6/3eq: +0.079
Player:
Opponent:		51.58% (G:16.47% B:0.81%)
48.42% (G:13.76% B:0.69%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.072...+0.086) - [100.0%]
2.Book124/21 13/8eq: +0.032 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:		50.66% (G:14.39% B:0.80%)
49.34% (G:13.83% B:0.56%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.025...+0.040) - [0.0%]
3.Book113/10 13/8eq: -0.007 (-0.086)
Player:
Opponent:		49.48% (G:15.39% B:0.85%)
50.52% (G:14.49% B:0.74%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.014...+0.001) - [0.0%]
4.Book224/16eq: -0.010 (-0.089)
Player:
Opponent:		50.21% (G:12.03% B:0.55%)
49.79% (G:13.81% B:0.53%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.013...-0.008) - [0.0%]
5.Book213/5eq: -0.026 (-0.105)
Player:
Opponent:		49.24% (G:14.49% B:0.71%)
50.76% (G:14.27% B:0.75%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.029...-0.024) - [0.0%]
6.2-ply13/8 6/3eq: -0.087 (-0.166)
Player:
Opponent:		47.57% (G:13.13% B:0.55%)
52.43% (G:14.47% B:0.83%)
1 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 2/26/2011 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38613390
Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red

2 Generated by Steven Carey on 7/21/2013 using eXtreme Gammon 2.10
46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 69502502
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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