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BGonline.org Forums
Congratulations Akiko!--She won even more/Pineapple Bluff/Odds Question
Posted By: Phil Simborg In Response To: Congratulations Akiko!--She won even more/Pineapple Bluff/Odds Question (Bob Koca)
Date: Tuesday, 24 November 2015, at 1:11 a.m.
I have little doubt that in time, you, and Art Benjamin, and a couple of others I know, can solve virtually any mathematical quiz. This one, however, is a little more complex in that it includes game theory as applied to Pineapple Bluff gammon. As you may know, in this game, the player gets to peek at the 3 dice and then can decide whether to double or not.
Now, we you have a situation where if you hit X number of chances you win a gammon most of the time, and when you miss you lose the game virtually all of the time, and your odds of hitting are Y, you must also calcuate what percentage of the time it is right to bluff, and of course, what percentage of the time it is right to call the bluff. Obviously these numbers change depending on the real odds, but also the game theory aspects which I have no clue how to quantify, but Jim Pasko, from his gaming experience, believes he can put actual numbers on just how often it is right to bluff if you don't, in fact, hit, based on the risk/reward of getting a take/pass/ or even, dare we say, beaver?
Not sure if it is ever right to beaver in Bluff Gammon, because the other player has seen the hole cards, but it does raise another interesting point.
I have asked Pasko to send me the proposition so that I can state it clearly, but instead he called me saying it would be quite complicated to put into writing and it requires some explanation about the parameters of the situation.
Having said that, if I ever do get Jim's question in a form where I believe I can relay it accurately, you, BOB KOCA, will be the first I will challenge to answer it!
I have learned to have enormous respect, and even awe for people like Pasko, Benjamin and Koca, in particular, (and others like O'Hagan, MCG, Robertie, Magriel, Kleinman, Jacobs) who even have the tools it takes to comprehend the math behind this game. No wonder us mortals have little chance against you in a game like backgammon if you choose to put your time and energy toward it.
Thank goodness there is an element of luck, gambling, intuition, and other approaches than pure match to be a winner from time to time!
What a great game we play!
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