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BGonline.org Forums
Double elimination tips?
Posted By: Keene In Response To: Double elimination tips? (sebalotek)
Date: Tuesday, 15 December 2015, at 8:06 p.m.
Your rollouts are 0-ply for play. That makes a difference, since your considerations are not raw equity for the best 0-ply play, they are for the 2-ply and above. So, if you change the ply, it should run the 11/10 out to be best by a smallish margin - probably ~0.02 or so, although thats just an estimate.
I assume its a blitzing type situation since: A - you just hit the 3rd checker; B - long term your opp has a better structure since you already made your ace point; C - you have a better board for blitzing, and therefore should be hitting any entering checkers (mostly) since those sequences are expected to work in your favor; (finally) D - as soon as opp anchors, you are changing strategy to be 'bearing in against an anchor safely', which indicates that until that happens you will be slamming your homeboard.
Anyway, thats what I would be doing OTB. Whether I am right or wrong is up for debate, and many on this forum have a long history of either (a) saying I'm wrong, or (b) proving I'm wrong or (c) both the above.
Just a couple of cents of my wisdom. I dont see any other participants in this particular piece, so take it as you will.
K
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