So I set up the position again and had a quick play..
It was not that the current position was *awful*, but I felt that if I took, a hitting roll followed by a dance from me (or a feasible blitz from him) could very quickly turn this game into a fairly gammonish and match-losing situation.
What was interesting for me is that if he rolled a 6 and hit the direct shot, with 3 of my men back, his gammons only went up to 20% (from 18%). And even with a single hit, there would also be a blitz threat to consider.
However, if I somehow managed to dance on the 2 point board with 5-6, or 5-5, or 6-6 after the single hit, his gammons would jump to 27%.
Even worse, if he rolled the joker 6-3 and double hit, his gammons would jump to 27%.
And if I then somehow managed to dance on the 2 point board (I'm good at that!) with 5-6, or 5-5, or 6-6 after the double hit, with 4 men back, they would be 33% (or 28.5% if I got one in, or 25% if I got both in).
So, my main consideration was more *the potential jump in gammon threat* rather than the immediate one - the gammon risk could dramatically increase within a very quick pair of rolls.
All this aside, the illustrious Mr. Woolsey and the relentless eXtreme Gammon both say that my decision to drop was blunderful; because of the score plus because I guess a) he could miss and b) I could roll some kind of return hit or joker anyway?
So much to learn.. :)