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Fun new probability puzzle

Posted By: Jeremy Bagai
Date: Saturday, 27 May 2017, at 5:37 a.m.

Fun newish counter-intuitive probability puzzle making the rounds via decision-theory academic Peter Ayton:

Imagine being obliged to play Russian roulette – twice (if you are lucky enough to survive the first game). Each time you must spin the chambers of a six-chambered revolver before pulling the trigger. However you do have one choice: You can choose to either (a) use a revolver which contains only 2 bullets or (b) blindly pick one of two other revolvers: one revolver contains 3 bullets; the other just 1 bullet. Whichever particular gun you pick you must use every time you play.

The math is easy enough, but I don't feel I 'understand' the result. More below in comments . . .

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