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I'm reminded of this old PROP ROLLOUT

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Thursday, 26 October 2017, at 3:34 p.m.

In Response To: I'm reminded of this old PROP (neilkaz)

XG says blue is only 46% to win the game, but has .077 equity.

And it's nowhere near a cube yet.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 45
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 60
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--E-E-E-------------e-e-e-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 45.97% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 45.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 54.03% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 54.05% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities -0.081 -0.162
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.077±0.003 (+0.074..+0.079)
Redouble/Beaver:-0.990 (-1.067)±0.012 (-1.002..-0.978)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.923)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Beaver
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 34.9%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 19 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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