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$-game cube RO

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Tuesday, 15 May 2007, at 4:01 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Thurs. May 10th (Stick)

Certainly no question about the money game cube decisions. Although the accepted cube equities appear consistent between the two rollouts (actual score vs. $-game) the standard error (uncertainty) on the earlier rollout's cubeless eq. (after accepted cube) is 0.003 so the two rollouts are discrepant at the 2.9 j.s.d. level. I interpret that to mean that there is SOME difference in the way the positions are played, (not surprisingly) motivated by the score.

BTW, the Janowski $ takepoint cubeless equity here is 0.596.

The score (after 0 games) is: White 7, Blue 3

Move number 3: White to play 41


1O ' '2X2X2X '2X '1X '5O

1X ' ' '2O3O '3O '1X '4X

Pip counts: White 147, Blue 166
Position ID: sHPwAVDYZuIJIA Match ID: MAEGAHAAGAAA

• White doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity +0.5645
Cubeful equities:
1.Double, take +0.9260
2.Double, pass +1.0000 +0.0740
3.No double +0.8597 -0.0664
Proper cube action:Double, take
Rollout details
WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Centered 1-cube0.70080.21170.0106-0.29920.05750.0020 +0.5645 +0.8597
Standard error0.00040.00070.0002-0.00040.00030.0001 0.0012 0.0033
Player Blue owns 2-cube0.70050.22810.0106-0.29950.05770.0026 +1.1586 +0.9260
Standard error0.00050.00070.0002-0.00050.00030.0001 0.0029 0.0042
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
12863 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1058393472 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
Different evaluations after 8 plies:
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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