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$-take??

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Friday, 11 May 2007, at 5:03 p.m.

In Response To: Re: Cube Rollout (neilkaz)

Neil, you seem to conclude that this is a "clear money take" from the cubeless-$ equity stated in the rollout. There are two problems that I see here:

1) I'm pretty sure (and think it's been confirmed by GNU-bg developers) that a better estimate of the $-equity is to use the wins/gammons/backgammons breakdown from the TAKE half of the rollout ("player X owns 2-cube" here) instead of the ND breakdown (which is what GNU-bg does). As usual, the reason has to do with truncation -- which happens earlier (sometimes MUCH earlier) on the ND branch as compared to the D+T branch.

2) My longer rollout has smaller uncertainties than Sticks and gets a slightly higher equity for his side.

Using my rollout numbers and the above method, I get an equivalent money equity of 0.589 for this position. Now what do you say about the $ D/T decision?

(I'll start a pure $-game rollout here and report later.)

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