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Rollout Result and Commentary

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Wednesday, 9 February 2011, at 12:46 a.m.

In Response To: 52D-33E-41 (Paul Weaver)

Thanks to Nack for his fantastic detailed analysis. Just as Jeremy edited Walter's GammonVillage posts into a great book ("Backgammon Boot Camp"), one day someone will edit Nack's posts on this site into a supurb volume.

Nack wrote, "The above analysis is for money. I don't think that Paul's –9–6 match score is likely to make a pivotal difference for this play." Nack's statement is correct, but I am posting the XG+ eval of 52D-33E-41 for money, gammon go and -9-6 to show by how much the score affects the difference in the plays. 52D-33E-41W is "righter" at -9-6 than for money.

I am posting seven XG postions below:

(1) 52D-33E-41 rollout result for money. The posted position occurred at -9-6, but to make it more generic, I rolled it out for money.

(2) (3) (4) To show how the change in score affects White's play in 52D-33E-41, I am posting the XG+ eval of this position for Money, gammon go and -9-6.

(5) (6) (7) To show how the change in score affects Black's play in 52D-33, I am posting the XG+ eval of this position for Money, gammon save and -6-9.

33E (24/21(2) 6/3(2)) often performs surprising well on the second roll in rollouts at gammon save. In fact, it may sometimes be the best play on the second roll at gammon save. Wonder if Nack has any data supporting this assertion.

If the XG+ data presented below is close to accurate, then Kenji's play of 52D-33E was wrong by less (if wrong at all) than my play of 52D-33E-41P.

Position 1.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 155
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 160
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=----b-E-D--AeC---c-c--b-B-:0:0:1:14:0:0:3:0:10
to play 14

1.Rollout124/20 6/5eq: -0.318
Player:
Opponent:		 43.32% (G:9.57% B:0.38%)
56.68% (G:17.42% B:1.10%)		Conf: ± 0.009 (-0.327...-0.309)
Duration: 3 hours 33 minutes
2.Rollout211/7 8/7eq: -0.340 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:		 42.67% (G:8.31% B:0.36%)
57.33% (G:16.35% B:0.63%)		Conf: ± 0.008 (-0.348...-0.332)
Duration: 3 hours 04 minutes
1 7843 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

2 7842 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Position 2.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 155
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 160
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=----b-E-D--AeC---c-c--b-B-:0:0:1:41:0:0:3:0:10
to play 41

1.XG Roller+24/20 6/5eq: -0.306
Player:
Opponent:		 43.77% (G:9.33% B:0.32%)
56.23% (G:16.79% B:1.03%)
2.XG Roller+11/7 8/7eq: -0.308 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:		 43.38% (G:8.69% B:0.28%)
56.62% (G:15.48% B:0.63%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Position 3.

is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 155
9 point match
pip: 160
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=----b-E-D--AeC---c-c--b-B-:0:0:1:41:0:3:0:9:10
to play 41

1.XG Roller+24/20 6/5eq: -0.255
Player:
Opponent:		 43.83% (G:9.05% B:0.31%)
56.17% (G:16.25% B:0.97%)
2.XG Roller+11/7 8/7eq: -0.270 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:		 43.34% (G:8.13% B:0.25%)
56.66% (G:15.49% B:0.60%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Position 4.

is Player 2

score: 8
pip: 155
9 point match
Crawford
pip: 160
score: 7

is Player 1
XGID=----b-E-D--AeC---c-c--b-B-:0:0:1:41:7:8:1:9:10
to play 41

1.XG Roller+24/20 6/5eq: +0.055
Player:
Opponent:		 43.42% (G:9.35% B:0.29%)
56.58% (G:17.14% B:1.04%)
2.XG Roller+11/7 8/7eq: +0.030 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:		 43.45% (G:8.04% B:0.24%)
56.55% (G:16.44% B:0.69%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Position 5.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 167
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 160
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-D--AeC---c-e----B-:0:0:-1:33:0:0:3:0:10
to play 33

1.XG Roller+8/5(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0.256
Player:
Opponent:		 56.14% (G:19.63% B:1.03%)
43.86% (G:12.40% B:0.67%)
2.XG Roller+24/21(2) 8/5(2)eq: +0.249 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		 55.28% (G:16.18% B:0.62%)
44.72% (G:8.83% B:0.30%)
3.XG Roller+24/21(2) 13/10(2)eq: +0.244 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:		 55.76% (G:14.45% B:0.56%)
44.24% (G:8.82% B:0.29%)
4.XG Roller+24/21(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0.239 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:		 55.31% (G:14.94% B:0.62%)
44.69% (G:8.84% B:0.30%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Position 6.

is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 167
9 point match
pip: 160
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-D--AeC---c-e----B-:0:0:-1:33:0:3:0:9:10
to play 33

1.XG Roller+24/21(2) 8/5(2)eq: +0.210
Player:
Opponent:		 55.35% (G:16.08% B:0.61%)
44.65% (G:8.68% B:0.29%)
2.XG Roller+24/21(2) 13/10(2)eq: +0.209
Player:
Opponent:		 55.75% (G:14.40% B:0.54%)
44.25% (G:8.51% B:0.29%)
3.XG Roller+8/5(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0.205 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:		 56.02% (G:19.23% B:0.98%)
43.98% (G:12.19% B:0.64%)
4.XG Roller+24/21(2) 6/3(2)eq: +0.199 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:		 55.32% (G:14.56% B:0.57%)
44.68% (G:8.51% B:0.27%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Position 7.

is Player 2

score: 8
pip: 167
9 point match
Crawford
pip: 160
score: 7

is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-D--AeC---c-e----B-:0:0:-1:33:7:8:1:9:10
to play 33

1.XG Roller+24/21(2) 13/10(2)eq: -0.053
Player:
Opponent:		 55.51% (G:13.80% B:0.58%)
44.49% (G:8.16% B:0.25%)
2.XG Roller+24/21(2) 6/3(2)eq: -0.060 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:		 55.16% (G:14.56% B:0.66%)
44.84% (G:8.18% B:0.27%)
3.XG Roller+24/21(2) 8/5(2)eq: -0.064 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:		 55.28% (G:16.03% B:0.71%)
44.72% (G:8.46% B:0.28%)
4.XG Roller+8/5(2) 6/3(2)eq: -0.114 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:		 56.14% (G:19.22% B:1.10%)
43.86% (G:11.82% B:0.61%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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