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Bearoff checker play (detailed lesson in response) spoiler RO at the end

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Sunday, 14 August 2011, at 11:06 p.m.

In Response To: Bearoff checker play (detailed lesson in response) spoiler RO at the end (Max Levenstein)

The table below should give an idea of when and by how much one play is better than the other. For each of White's rolls, the table gives Blue's Match Equity (ME) having played 4/off or 3/off 3/*2, and the weighted difference (nondoublets being counted twice) between the two.

Match Equities are from 40 Gnubg 2-ply 7776 trial rollouts.

White's Response4/off ME3/off 3/2* MEWeighted (dis)advantage for 3/off 3/2*comment
4475.35187.77712.426fan with 4-4 is very big
4182.52487.77710.506fan is big
3183.06486.31906.51031 is barely better for White than fanning
1183.06487.77704.713fan is big but tiny 11 is bad anyway
5181.82483.58203.516from gaining ~0.5 rolls and ~1 crossover
4380.58882.34203.508(" ")
6477.65279.33503.366(" ")
5379.48281.14203.320(" ")
6180.68682.34203.312(" ")
6378.47080.08903.238(" ")
5478.66780.17603.018(" ")
6576.88078.38303.006(" ")
3376.24577.41801.173(" ")
6279.74679.83400.176average racing number; hits but leaves 18 return hits from the bar
5575.11875.17400.056still some slight gammons chances
6675.11875.14000.0222 doublets vs. 54 still wins a gammon
2183.01780.955(04.124)worst racing number; hits but leaves 18 return hits from the bar
2282.50677.047(05.459)numbers that hit and safety mean fewer gammons lost
5280.68677.486(06.400)(" ")
4281.82477.480(08.688)(" ")
3283.13075.549(15.162)the small racing number 32 hits and efficiently covers

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