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How to estimate chances of hitting shot? ROLLOUT

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Wednesday, 28 November 2012, at 2:54 p.m.

In Response To: How to estimate chances of hitting shot? (AP)

I know that the question was how to compute the probability of a shot, but here's the rollout of the cube decision. It's a clear double, and a very marginal take according to XG.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 73
Unlimited Game
pip: 101
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BBBBCA----A-b---Bd-ccc--:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 76.72% (G:0.69% B:0.01%) 77.20% (G:0.63% B:0.01%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.28% (G:1.16% B:0.03%) 22.80% (G:1.05% B:0.03%)
Cubeless Equities +0.529 +1.079
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.818 (-0.176)±0.005 (+0.813..+0.823)
xg Redouble/Take:+0.994±0.006 (+0.988..+1.001)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.006)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:95.8%
Duration: 5 minutes 38 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

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