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54S-11 and 43S-11

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Friday, 20 June 2014, at 9:38 p.m.

In Response To: Which is better: 54S-11E or 54S-11N? (David Rockwell)

Excellent analysis by David.

OTB, I have seen 54S-11 misplayed as N several times. I've never seen E played, even though everyone seems to get it right when asked. Not that there is much equity at stake.

Many years ago, when opening 43S was sported more frequently, I also saw 43S-11 misplayed as N most of the time, where a relatively significant amount of equity is at stake: .054 by (5k) GnuBG rollout though less than that by XG rollout (see below). It's not even clear that N is the second best play.

In addition to the insightful points made by Mike and David that apply to 54S-11, there is also an extra blot in the outfield (which one is more likely to hit by splitting the back checkers) for 43S-11.

Key: N (Near) = 8/7(2) 6/5*(2), E (Each) = 24/22 6/5*(2), E.(Each 1:3) = 24/23 6/5(3)

Nactation tutorial




White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 160
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 167
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---aE-C---dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:11:0:0:3:0:10

43S-11 ..[E N32 E.33] "<=5


1.Rollout124/22 6/5*(2) eq: +0.408
Player:
Opponent:
59.46% (G:18.04% B:0.96%)
40.54% (G:9.85% B:0.39%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.400...+0.416) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 16 minutes
2.Rollout18/7(2) 6/5*(2) eq: +0.376 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
58.49% (G:17.88% B:0.91%)
41.51% (G:10.70% B:0.52%)
Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.369...+0.384) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 14 minutes
3.Rollout124/23 6/5*(3) eq: +0.375 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
58.60% (G:17.85% B:0.93%)
41.40% (G:10.56% B:0.45%)
Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.367...+0.383) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 14 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25540072
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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