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6away 9away recube calculation DISCUSSION
Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Friday, 14 June 2013, at 4:05 p.m.
In Response To: 6away 9away recube calculation DISCUSSION (Marv Porten)
This is a nearly trivial mathematical exercise to be honest. This is in part due to the fact that White wins this game only 21.2% (memory of this basic position) and White's ME if he passes is also 21.2%. (memory or Neil's Numbers will get you close enuf).
All of White's wins come with the cube on 8 but they only make him an 88.7% match favorite. Once we see this we can very strongly suspect that this position is a pass. To be sure we can check how much ME White saves by not recubing when Blue gins him with a double. This happens 1/6 of the time and White retains 9.8% ME (memory).
Clearly 1/6 of 9.8% is less than 11.3% of 21.2% so without doing any more math we see that White's savings from being able to play from 70 are less than his costs from only being ahead 83 when he wins. Therefore we see this is a clear pass. Of course we could also do a more detailed calculation but it isn't difficult.

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