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6-away 9-away re-cube calculation DISCUSSION

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Friday, 14 June 2013, at 4:05 p.m.

In Response To: 6-away 9-away re-cube calculation DISCUSSION (Marv Porten)

This is a nearly trivial mathematical exercise to be honest. This is in part due to the fact that White wins this game only 21.2% (memory of this basic position) and White's ME if he passes is also 21.2%. (memory or Neil's Numbers will get you close enuf).

All of White's wins come with the cube on 8 but they only make him an 88.7% match favorite. Once we see this we can very strongly suspect that this position is a pass. To be sure we can check how much ME White saves by not recubing when Blue gins him with a double. This happens 1/6 of the time and White retains 9.8% ME (memory).

Clearly 1/6 of 9.8% is less than 11.3% of 21.2% so without doing any more math we see that White's savings from being able to play from 7-0 are less than his costs from only being ahead 8-3 when he wins. Therefore we see this is a clear pass. Of course we could also do a more detailed calculation but it isn't difficult.

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