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6away 9away recube calculation
Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Wednesday, 12 June 2013, at 9:35 p.m.
In Response To: 6away 9away recube calculation (Marv Porten)
(1) Is it possible to calculate this recube action overtheboard in a reasonable amount of time?
I think you could calculate this over the board in a reasonable time if you knew (1) your match equity table, and (2) that if you take, this position ...
The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 3 (match to 9 points)
Move number 7: White on roll, cube decision?
White 5
Blue 3 Position ID: BwAA8AEAAAAAAA Match ID: AgEgAQAAGAAE ... will occur 5/6 of the time and is a redouble to 8 with you winning about 25% of the time (the other 1/6 of the time you lose 4 points).
So in the original position,
(1) if you pass, you trail 9away 4away for 21% MWC (2) if you take, there are only two outcomes to calculate (a) you trail 9away 2away for 10% MWC about 16% of the time (and 10% of 16% is 1.6%) (b) you lead 1away 6away Crawford for about 89% MWC about 21% of the time (because 1/4 of 5/6 = 5/24 = 20.8%) (and 89% of 21% is 18.7%) Since 1.6% + 18.7% = 20.3%, less than 21%, White should pass in the original position.
(2) For Blue to properly calculate whether to redouble, must he determine his MWC if White takes AND recubes to 8 (if Blue does not roll an initial doublet), and compare that MWC to his MWC if White drops?
No, not here. Blue doesn't have to calculate his nodouble equity, since he can first ask whether White should take, and since White should pass, the double is automatic, assuming equal players.

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