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BGonline.org Forums
Help! Why race when behind?
Posted By: Stick In Response To: Help! Why race when behind? (Bill Calton)
Date: Monday, 22 July 2013, at 11:11 p.m.
After running 23/15 or slotting the 5pt 13/5 there should be no immediate cube action. The race lead simply isn't big enough.
Your thoughts are probably that you're behind in the race so you want to stay back for the contact. The first thing you should try to figure out is how much contact is there that's good for you. In other words, I'd look at my opp's immediate rolls and see if he's coughing up any shots. I only find a roll of 31 to offer up a blot. Everything else plays safely. I imagine the turn after that it will be more of the same as my opp. has likely made some sort of distributional improvement, if only slight, so the bad rolls are few and far between.
If we sit back for this contact what happens is at some point our opponent rolls one of his decent numbers to either attack us or pin us in. The contact that favors us is marginal while what is more likely to happen is at some point the contact will favor him. This leads to the explanation that everyone has pointed out in the breakdown of the numbers. Yes, staying back wins slightly more at dmp because we aren't worried about gammons but there is a big gammon difference between running and staying back. Running it's obvious neither side really wins any net gammons and staying back it should also be clear that you lose your fair share while winning scant.
The race isn't terrible for you either. I feel like the contact vig is so small and the racing vig is where it's at for your game plan. Even when you stay back this roll I think the game is likely to unfold when you win by you running out to break away rather than you hitting some obscure shot.
Stick
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