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Interpreting the rollouts
Posted By: Matt CohnGeier
Date: Wednesday, 24 July 2013, at 4:29 p.m.
In Response To: Interpreting the rollouts (Taper_Mike)
Cubeless tradeoff is about 1.2% wins for 6% more gammon losses, which is not a good tradeoff (should be about 1.2% wins for 2.4% gammon losses to break even). So gammon losses hurt.
However bringing the cube into the equation, if cube efficiency were equal, I think it should weight the play more towards 13/5 than 23/15, and the difference should be smaller or swing the other way. However, it does notthe difference becomes even larger in each cubeful rollout. In fact, the biggest equity difference is with the cube in the center and Jacoby on, which is the rollout we might expect to be the most in favor of 13/5, if cube efficiency were equal.
Applying Rick's formula I get:
23/15: x1 = .691; x2 = .816
13/5: x1 = .657; x2 = .866
So your cube efficiency is both better when you play 23/15 and your opponent's cube efficiency is worse.
Gammon losses also hurt of course. I am not sure exactly how to weight the two. But it's clear that both gammon losses and mutual use of the cube point to running.

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